Canadian house prices to double in 20 years: CIBC

风平浪静

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian house prices are likely to double over the next 20 years, despite the downsizing of homes by seniors and a shrinking number of younger, first-time buyers, a report by CIBC World Markets said on Wednesday.

Fears of a house-price decline thanks to an aging population and other changing demographics are "highly exaggerated," Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said in the report.
6 o) |2 f: m) d7 E( A8 v$ V# L"Despite downward pressure from demographic forces, on average we expect house prices in Canada to double in the next 20 years," he said.

The report compares population growth between two cycles of housing prices, from 1987 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2026, using Statistics Canada's medium-growth, medium-immigration projection as a benchmark.
4 p) Z  I/ f# I) T% QThe impact of a forecast net decline of 167,000 first-time buyers, typically people aged 25 to 44, between 2007 and 2026, is "marginal, at best," Tal said.

, c  o+ E' X; `! `1 F5 b" OHe added that this age group is by far the largest contributor to overall housing demand, accounting for almost 68 per cent of all home sales, so the modest downturn will not significantly affect housing demand.
The largest decline, of 2.5 million, is projected for the 45 to 54 age group, as many baby boomers move to the next age bracket. But the impact of this change is also expected to be limited because that age group accounts for only 12 per cent of total housing demand, the report said.

( Z! N8 q& T1 C- f% XThe report predicts the moderate decline in housing demand will be partly offset by a strong increase in demand from the 55 to 74 age group, largely reflecting purchases of vacation and investment properties.
7 Q' {3 y2 ^+ _' BTal said the Canadian market will face an extra supply of about 250,000 houses over the next twenty years, as older age groups liquidate and downsize and the number of first-time buyers eases. That translates into an average extra supply of 12,500 homes a year.

" T; o% r; F3 C. K# }- `2 qHowever, the report suggests that builders will have to reduce new housing supply only moderately in order to eliminate any negative impact on prices.

CIBC projects that the average real house price will mirror the performance of the past two decades. During the period between 1987 and 2007, Canada experienced a 3 percent annual increase in real home prices, the report said.
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"Assuming a 2 percent annual inflation rate, this means that house prices in Canada are expected to double by 2026," said Tal.

smalltown

It is reasonable. 100% increase in 20 years. We had 100% increase in last 2 years.

音响神仙鱼

理应如此.

疯青羊

20年翻番，平均每年是不是也就3%左右？刚刚赶上平均通货膨胀率

八年移民

星期三的时候，CIBC世界市场（CIBC World Markets）的投资专家Benjamin Tal预测，未来加拿大房价并不如其他一些经济学家所言，随着婴儿潮的逝去而渐渐下滑。到2026年，加拿大的房屋价格将会翻一番。
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* `' U* H1 a5 K$ kBenjamin Tal认为，“在未来20年中，加拿大的房屋价格将会继续攀升至目前的两倍。对于初次购房者的数量会下降的担忧完全是有些夸张的。”
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Tal引用了20年前的一份资料，当时一些人口部门人员预测未来20年中，无论是加拿大还是美国，婴儿潮的逝去必然带动房价的下跌。但实际上，在这20年中，每年房屋均价都会有3%的上涨。截止到现在，加拿大房屋市场与预期正好相反。

$ p; t) w4 `# K即使到2026年，年龄在45岁到54岁之间的婴儿潮一代老去，减少250万的，但另一点不可忽视，那就是在房屋需求中，这一比例在全国人口中仅占到了12%。
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老年人走了，但新的一代也在长大。据CIBC调查，年龄在25岁到44岁的正打算初次购房的人数已经占到了这个群体中的68%。

CIBC看来，几大关键因素将会在未来继续维持房产市场的“高温”：

% b0 Z- W3 t3 e9 }4 L9 j  l利率将会继续保持低水平；

5 e) Z7 x* z! ?5 X' H  J$ ?大量移民将会继续涌入；

新的按揭贷款方式将会不断涌向，为人们提供更多的选择机会；

也即使说人口的变动并不会从根本上改变房产市场供需之间的紧张矛盾。
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假设平均通货膨胀率为2%，那么截止到2026年预测的房产均价可能会达到目前的两倍。

“毫无疑问，在一些大城中，这种增幅程度会更大。”

+ u4 I+ W' [6 s- h' }: H3 [在本周的早些时候，加拿大房产协会报告就称，三月份在全国25个主要城市的平均二手房价格已经上涨至了$316,572。

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 疯青羊 于 2007-4-18 23:31 发表
( |  e0 r9 ?8 |8 |# Z20年翻番，平均每年是不是也就3%左右？刚刚赶上平均通货膨胀率

1 a6 T2 @& l+ x- Z* C+ p那只是保守的估计

精品中年老男人

原文中没说是不是保守估计。

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 又见清风 于 2007-4-19 10:08 发表
, d8 j- w! b2 ~9 {原文中没说是不是保守估计。

$ T8 P  j: ?# W5 L  T( D# l% Z# ~4 ~
+ A0 x$ N) _+ T. h和通涨持平没有问题， 如果现状没有根本性的变化， 还可能更高。

精品中年老男人

Tal said the Canadian market will face an extra supply of about 250,000 houses over the next twenty years, as older age groups liquidate and downsize and the number of first-time buyers eases. That translates into an average extra supply of 12,500 homes a year.

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& o# K! f  B: J- U; h* H( d4 K  \我是听你的， 还是听他的？
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[ 本帖最后由 又见清风 于 2007-4-19 17:17 编辑 ]

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 又见清风 于 2007-4-19 17:09 发表
Tal said the Canadian market will face an extra supply of about 250,000 houses over the next twenty years, as older age groups liquidate and downsize and the number of first-time buyers eases. Th ...

, ]: d- Y& W# Z) ~the 12,500 older houses from the whole country doesn't do too much to Alberta

[ 本帖最后由 音响神仙鱼 于 2007-4-19 18:48 编辑 ]

精品中年老男人

I don't know.

7 F2 `+ r. l. |but please don't extrapolate the trend of housing price merely based on the current short term market trend. After all, market is market. Neither you Nor me can exactly predict.

8 K- I; }1 [% _( H7 H0 I1 G9 H% Ufor me, I would rather believe what the CIBC guy said than what you said, not because you have a house or flip several ones.
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; G) ~6 w( m6 M  w' Q: A* @Maybe you are too optimistic and I am too pessimistic.

Someone on this board said earlier that, even 1% of the total houses will make a huge impact on the real estate market, as it really changes the supply-demand relation.
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# {8 G1 Y# H$ V- Y' q) p: Z1 rwe will wait and see.

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 又见清风 于 2007-4-19 18:58 发表
I don't know.

but please don't extrapolate the trend of housing price merely based on the current short term market trend. After all, market is market. Neither you Nor me can exactly predict. ...

# c  |$ e7 n, }no need to believe me, there are too many different opinions out there but you can always have your own point. I am not "too optimistic", but even 100% return in the next 20 yrs have already made myself and many other home owners feel gratified. But in Alberta, the increase is just even more

U-boat

原帖由 疯青羊 于 2007-4-18 23:31 发表
* v; v" i! Z. K7 ^/ Z20年翻番，平均每年是不是也就3%左右？刚刚赶上平均通货膨胀率

9 j  }4 ?. E+ T. ?3 W, t) j精确一点是3.5%。没有什么惊喜，也就是和前二十年差不多。

寒江雪

If the prediction is true, it would be a great burden for many future immigrants who want to move to cities like Edmonton, Calgary, and, not to say, Vancouver. Hopefully, that RMB can appreciate even more sharply agaist Canadian Dollar, and then it can offset some price increase of the housing.

smalltown

This is an average estimate for Canada. Since the house prices in Alberta have increased by 200% in last 10 years, the appreciation here might be much less than 100% in the next 20 years.

精品中年老男人

3.5%基本上等于inflation. --------------房子基本没涨价。

U-boat

原帖由 又见清风 于 2007-4-20 09:56 发表
' j( ^, Z8 h+ O" f5 D& L3.5%基本上等于inflation. --------------房子基本没涨价。

靓女，太对了，加拿大上个世纪的年平均通胀是3.2。但这不等于说没有炒作空间，即使今年只涨3.5, 你25%的首期也有百分之十几的毛利。

U-boat

当然了，你的借款利率要足够低才有纯利。

smalltown

原帖由 U-boat 于 2007-4-20 15:26 发表

靓女，太对了，加拿大上个世纪的年平均通胀是3.2。但这不等于说没有炒作空间，即使今年只涨3.5, 你25%的首期也有百分之十几的毛利。

Don't understand.

寒江雪

That is really a good news. It really does not make much sense that housing price in Canada can soar up so much. Anyhow it is a country with vast land, rich resources and relatively small population. Maybe the real estate market will  cool down gradually.

寒江雪

虽然和inflation持平，不过绝对值还是较高的。要能降些就更好。