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我总结的房地产将要crash的标志, 看了的可以不会贴, 但必需送花!

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发表于 2007-3-9 14:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
我总结的房地产将要crash的标志, 看了的可以不会贴, 但必需送花! 否则后果很严重!
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1. 新移民来了直接找basement的出租房, 或者分租房. 2 bedroom的方便地段房租到1200以上.   X- s7 ?5 P/ X+ e" X" V
2. 买3bedroom以上房的人(中国移民)有80%以上靠分租养房.
) w$ ]; b1 b, X) m5 k" H3. 两人打labor工, 或只有一方拿50000以下工资的人,想都不会想买房这个问题8 ]1 l7 M- k0 o
4. 房版论坛异常火暴, 大家讨论的不再是 Rent VS Buy, 这种初级问题. 已经上升到投资高度. 对房地产投资的讨论从初级到高级过渡, 并且盲目乐观.- @. U* A( ~' b" I
5. 出现了一个投资比房地产更赚钱, 比如大牛股市. 或者另一个地区的房地产热.
" I0 c! S* t( c" p- s( R* e6. 另外还有些宏观经济现象或大环境, 这个我就不一一列出来了.
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8 e+ l8 e9 P1 U; a- t以上的现象是我对比Toronto的近几年有盛到衰而总结的, 希望高人补充.
大型搬家
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:12 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 dgg 于 2007-3-9 14:08 发表
  W; F; o# R  V* T我总结的房地产将要crash的标志, 看了的可以不会贴, 但必需送花! 否则后果很严重!9 y+ }$ L" v. l

- G9 r5 R- a: w8 ^# L1. 新移民来了直接找basement的出租房, 或者分租房. 2 bedroom的方便地段房租到1200以上.
) f8 Q& L! v$ b$ i3 n- G" a2. 买3bedroom以上房的人(中国移 ...
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2 }' u! Q& f; ]7 Y$ m! F不送花,回个贴。
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:14 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 dgg 于 2007-3-9 14:08 发表
: f) o. l$ ?& z  M7 p) I9 k7 R- G我总结的房地产将要crash的标志, 看了的可以不会贴, 但必需送花! 否则后果很严重!
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& X* w3 `: @& P2 f1. 新移民来了直接找basement的出租房, 或者分租房. 2 bedroom的方便地段房租到1200以上.
1 q5 l7 F2 j6 r5 O7 K, t2. 买3bedroom以上房的人(中国移 ...

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还有大家不再真正对房产感兴趣了, 而是开始对琢磨别人买了房的收入有多少有兴趣了.  (玩笑而已, 不必介意).
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:36 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
这几年房子还会大涨。当然不会有去年那样的惊喜,但是20%到30%总还是有的。现在股市赚钱不容易。炒外汇可以赌美金升值。
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:36 | 显示全部楼层
如果大家都将home's equity line of credit 用满了,我看就差不多完了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 14:39 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 如花 于 2007-3-9 14:36 发表$ b0 k) E& A% W& i- i% y( T
如果大家都将home's equity line of credit 用满了,我看就差不多完了。
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如果房子一直涨, 就永远不会用满. 应该是连unsecure LOC 都用满了就危险了.
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 14:41 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 francais 于 2007-3-9 14:39 发表
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: o  c! @- q; h# U3 N4 s7 P& {都太扣门了, 看贴回贴已经过时了, 看贴送花才是一种美德
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:46 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 bin8922 于 2007-3-9 14:36 发表9 m! K9 t- \( \
这几年房子还会大涨。当然不会有去年那样的惊喜,但是20%到30%总还是有的。现在股市赚钱不容易。炒外汇可以赌美金升值。

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20-30%的涨幅度也不算小吧?
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:47 | 显示全部楼层

回复 #1 dgg 的帖子

老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
小声问一下, 多伦多的房市现在衰了吗? 好象还是稳健地成长吧?
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发表于 2007-3-9 14:57 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:03 | 显示全部楼层

转贴 下面这么好的贴子,为什么不发到这儿来?

First-time Homebuyers Program" g5 b- y2 J# t$ n
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爱城的第一次买房者可以喘口气了。政府准备拿出一千套新房投入这个特殊的针对爱城的项目以缓解不断增长的市场需求。$ Q# u" D. c! W) |( T" q
此项目得到市政府的免税法案,另外得到爱城市议会和爱城学校局的支持,将把二十个不使用的学校改造成新房。
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, t+ U3 c6 r- W$ }: n( [7 TFor more information contact
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  _5 w8 _: r. O4 y3 T/ C% `Citizen Action Centre
  P% ]8 S1 }7 J1 Sir Winston Churchill Square
, D& |3 r8 o4 VEdmonton, AB/ V% f. ~1 b: a  y, a3 u  S, ~' M
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* V6 z% Y# G) m3 NPhone: (780) 496-82004 w+ O2 c' j! c( s, V4 W, G  M
Fax: (780) 496-8210
' w6 K& Y7 T5 K+ }. a7 kE-mail: FirstTimeHomebuyers@edmonton.ca
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:09 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
原帖由 wallyy 于 2007-3-9 15:03 发表
4 s+ X8 b, b8 t1 \. U0 o, cFirst-time Homebuyers Program
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7 r; i+ J! X' j, a0 U6 |爱城的第一次买房者可以喘口气了。政府准备拿出一千套新房投入这个特殊的针对爱城的项目以缓解不断增长的市场需求。
. ^5 w0 g( x) v此项目得到市政府的免税法案,另外得到爱城市议会和爱城 ...
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这才是好消息啊!!
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  p7 v; |/ l& IHow will the program work?
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Lots on the 20 sites will be marketed to developers for the purpose of new home construction. Homes will be sold for the market value of the house alone, with the land value taken out of the cost for a period of up to five years.
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The City will guarantee the homes are only sold to first-time buyers and will determine the best way to ensure affordability, such as holding a second mortgage on the land value. Proceeds from the eventual sale of the land will be split equally between the City of Edmonton and the school boards.
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( ]4 V6 h& J( m- b( u: b. A0 aAll of the lots have now been rezoned to allow for low or medium density, multi-family construction. The final number of units constructed on each piece will be determined depending on how much land is available on each site. Impacted communities will have input during the design stage prior to construction, helping to guide how each development fits into their community.
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* j/ s; g' C: dWhat were the sites originally meant for?
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5 e6 ?1 u. ]7 s9 J8 g% KThe sites were originally identified as locations for neighbourhood schools. However, conditions in some areas have changed and the school boards have determined that there will not be schools developed and the sites were declared “surplus.” As the owner of the properties, the City received an exemption in the Municipal Government Act, allowing for all sites to be rezoned to accommodate this program.
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: _1 G* X1 }) X8 i. J& r+ WWhy wasn’t the normal community consultation process used?
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In the interest in creating new homes for first–time buyers in a timely fashion, the normal community consultation processes were modified, allowing the sites to be rezoned all at once, and as part of the same program. Following a site-by-site examination would have compromised the intent of creating a city-wide program and it would have caused excessive delays in being able to move forward with the program.
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In this case, the consultation process will happen after rezoning. Communities will be consulted on the design and character of the buildings, and, in some cases, on the placement of the housing on the site. ! n; |/ K& I& L( b

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1 J) A) ~, Z1 i. a9 R9 oWho will be eligible for the homes?
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+ X9 H; Y% r# ~- XEligible buyers will be first-time Alberta homebuyers who earn a moderate income, approximately 80 to 90 per cent of median income in the Edmonton region.
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8 B# h% a  j- R6 r2 i, K4 eHow many homes will be created? Where are they going to be located?  o: |0 |# s8 @$ ?

4 w+ c; T2 c/ R% HUp to 1,000 new homes will be created on 20 surplus school sites. + f& s- k7 S7 B5 y! a) d# Y
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How many homes will be constructed on each site?
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Depending on the size of the school building envelope, approximately 25 to 50 homes will be constructed on each site.# d* t5 p" J( X( {) W2 b6 p
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Have the first sites been chosen?& f* U; S) n" d* N

( _6 j$ t3 P0 N. t7 M5 |/ N7 E; rNo. The first three to five sites should be chosen by spring 2007. These will form part of the pilot phase of the program.5 @' C/ W: G! m4 h# U% j
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Can I buy a lot and build my own home?% @1 |$ x5 t1 o4 i( I! `

, k3 O' v2 M- W. l: aNo. The sites will be sold to developers or home builders for construction.+ K* v+ [& s1 @; V- w* \" y; [  n
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Why aren’t there any sites in the downtown core?
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There are no unused school sites in the downtown area. All school sites in the downtown area have buildings on them; as such, they are unsuitable for this program.
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Will construction begin on all sites at once?
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8 i$ `) ~5 x2 E" N2 M% d  w% D1 t( BNo. Three to five sites will be chosen as pilot projects. Once the pilot is complete, a review of the program will be done to ensure the program terms and conditions are working appropriately before beginning construction on the remaining sites.
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' n7 D! k+ m  _How much will the homes cost?! E5 ?% v5 p* g' G
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The final price of the homes will depend on construction costs and existing market conditions. The City can only really impact the price by removing the cost of the lot from the price for the first five years.
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8 ~$ M4 I9 u2 s3 @3 E' FIt is expected that construction on the first sites will begin in 2008 and those homes will be available for sale late 2008.
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Will there be an impact on traffic levels in the neighborhood?
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% e9 c/ ?  \7 b- SThe affected communities were designed to accommodate traffic associated with a school. The new homes to be developed will likely have less traffic impact than a school would have and should not create significant additional traffic demands.
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Will the neighbourhood sports fields or green spaces be impacted?+ `* d3 _! d  l1 i
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The protection of green spaces and sports fields is of the utmost importance to the City. That’s one of the reasons why only the area where the school building was to go will be developed for homes. If necessary, we will work around playing fields and playgrounds to minimize impact on recreational activities. These decisions will be made after we have a chance to consult with the communities.
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4 q8 m: E7 S" B" H2 b. h0 U4 |+ |What determines the location of new homes on each site?0 r7 `8 s9 Q4 F3 f- \' s5 f5 r
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For most sites, the new homes will be built in the same area as was originally planned for the school building. These locations may change based on site and neighbourhood specific factors, such as impact on existing and planned sports fields, park and school developments as well as the character of the surrounding community or other similar concerns.
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What happens next?
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The City has begun work on the next phase of the program. Over the upcoming months the following four issues will be addressed:$ A1 O) G" t6 F1 x3 D6 }6 m
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Development and construction program details
- ?& y% y: U3 W9 D* M$ aEligibility criteria and details on a second mortgage (or similar) program
( b- \7 S4 B, O. kPhysical assessment of site opportunities and constraints 1 I7 W1 ~& T' S- g) L, B" n
Finalizing an agreement with school boards on sharing of proceeds
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Can I put my name on a waiting list for these new homes?
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* A) D, m2 d8 [2 ]9 \No – once program details have been developed, the City will begin to take names for a waiting list.
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- G7 R% w0 p, _When will the additional details be available?# S' b3 p3 z. w! f9 ~' Y" p" m+ `

. }' x1 t7 j- b& G# G0 u; }8 [* [It is expected that program details will be finalized by late spring 2007.
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:15 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 flagship 于 2007-3-9 15:09 发表0 \$ ^7 V/ x, m5 i! m4 M

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这才是好消息啊!! $ V" H# n9 b2 I7 M

/ S/ n# M7 m# \# y2 Z0 KHow will the program work?; [+ C$ q# h  f3 R" V& ^6 d
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Lots on the 20 sites will be marketed to developers for the purpose of new home construction. Homes will be sold for the mark ...
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一千套房子能解决多大的问题?有多少 First-time Buyer?
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:19 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 ZJDX 于 2007-3-9 15:15 发表4 f& E/ O8 t0 v) X5 B
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一千套房子能解决多大的问题?有多少 First-time Buyer?
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爱城购房人群中,买得起而没买房的人已经不多了。
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:25 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 wallyy 于 2007-3-9 15:19 发表- g( x* R1 x( y" G& x

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$ w+ V2 G" {$ c( l$ g2 N( {* @( Z7 t
爱城购房人群中,买得起而没买房的人已经不多了。

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& N7 s* V2 e. i* h; }" {我想也是., m: x* I$ Y' J! A2 I

/ N+ t3 [' O! ?) ]) e" v9 u不过, 还有好多人想买第二\三套的吧?
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:26 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
想送花但不知道怎么操作。先回个帖,顶一下。1 U6 Y) o) s% ]7 m5 N' s( t* V& S
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真实数据:平均家庭收入按70K算(2006年约=65K),/ S: V3 ?! J; I$ i6 x+ d* f
               平均房价:包括CONDO在内为320K(MLS=321K;COMFREE=323K),! I  Z* V! B* g3 h9 D, r9 K. G
                              不包括CONDO为375K。, S/ y8 {& F% |0 k5 I. v4 [7 v& D

* M% ?, K! t& {! @2 l加拿大所有银行的标准房贷公式为:贷款=70K(收入) x 3=210K。
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" Q1 v+ a( P* |# ^该公式在加拿大用了几十年了。就是说几十年来中产阶级只要用家庭收入的1/3付贷款便可以买房子(多数是SINGLE HOUSE)。而今天中产阶级(70K收入)只能刚刚买得起CONDO。除非申请高风险贷款。可是月付>1/3收入,生活水平明显下降。: s/ {# @: P* S! I: D

9 H7 ?3 u% f; @) u2 A& F从政府到群众都知道这个现状,即平均收入的中产阶级自2006年起买不起平均价位的房子。怎么解决?没人知道。闹革命?不大可能。但既然政府(省,市)都是民选的,而中产阶级是社会的主流,总会有办法的。等着看吧。2 n& B: y, q0 n* |; _
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[ 本帖最后由 jeremy 于 2007-3-9 15:34 编辑 ]
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:31 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 flagship 于 2007-3-9 15:25 发表
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我想也是.$ a/ P* }9 G7 B$ z+ c" W
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不过, 还有好多人想买第二\三套的吧?

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8 `! q9 [$ {1 B, ]; z' B政府的房子只卖给first-time home buyers, 而且确保affordbility! 今年1000套,明年呢?后年呢?
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 15:38 | 显示全部楼层

科普: 怎样送花

1. 认真看完贴子8 L3 E$ m1 K2 i6 I7 ~
2. 在LZ贴子的右下角有一个鲜花标志, 还有个鸡蛋标志8 u5 P0 E+ Z9 R1 c
3. 点鲜花标志, 千万不要错点到鸡蛋标志喔, 会出人命的.# t6 W7 c" R# E: r' r  e
4. 你会进人另一个页面给我送花了.+ ]$ M+ `2 L- C  R2 g
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为什么我急着要花? 哈哈, 上次竞争开心卡时借了很多高利贷, 现在被人逼债!
鲜花(4348) 鸡蛋(18)
发表于 2007-3-9 15:48 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
不知道怎么送花。* l4 l* D' j( o9 H9 A- M; N7 K
crash具体指什么情况,我觉得首先应该讨论。
5 u: ?. i, N- b! e1 Y象美国一些地方去年的房市低迷算不算crash——房价绝对值并没有降或小降?  Q/ v+ L& [8 V
如果不算,以我对经济的理解,如果没有第三次世界大战,crash不会出现,对于北美这样一个完全的市场化环境,它会自动调整修正。——比如今天,如果不是自住,有多少人去投资50万以上的房子?
. P+ G5 j( I" f$ s5 Z0 W至于政府对市场的干预——建1000套廉价房的计划,杯水车薪且不说,具体实施我看应该还要二年(建设、申请、审批),短期内不仅不能起到抑制作用,还可能刺激其他区域的市场上扬。  e$ B7 L1 U1 f9 N% C8 U6 e! _

5 a; ?' O; o& W9 D8 B) X2 k9 v8 L[ 本帖最后由 紫光 于 2007-3-9 15:50 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:52 | 显示全部楼层
送花
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原帖由 dgg 于 2007-3-9 14:08 发表4 A' U. M$ ?7 w  \# R" v
我总结的房地产将要crash的标志, 看了的可以不会贴, 但必需送花! 否则后果很严重!
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1. 新移民来了直接找basement的出租房, 或者分租房. 2 bedroom的方便地段房租到1200以上.
& d0 Z7 _1 v9 V1 [& x2. 买3bedroom以上房的人(中国移 ...
老柳教车
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发表于 2007-3-9 15:59 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
原帖由 紫光 于 2007-3-9 15:48 发表
) _# i, L: B6 v- p: O不知道怎么送花。
) c) K* P# N' g! O+ lcrash具体指什么情况,我觉得首先应该讨论。
+ p, Q& I; `8 m7 d9 Y象美国一些地方去年的房市低迷算不算crash——房价绝对值并没有降或小降?/ h# e- N. V! g/ }4 F
如果不算,以我对经济的理解,如果没有第三次世界大战,crash不会出 ...

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政府的房子,五年房价中不包括地价,而且,The City will guarantee the homes are only sold to first-time buyers and will determine the best way to ensure affordability, such as holding a second mortgage on the land value. Proceeds from the eventual sale of the land will be split equally between the City of Edmonton and the school boards.: Y1 ?! u9 J0 j/ c0 d% s

- [2 ~% c/ t% J) B( Z) O换了你,你会买谁的房子?
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
原帖由 紫光 于 2007-3-9 15:48 发表$ B8 l, S; O) Z- S' n. d
不知道怎么送花。8 y5 ?  w2 i  {6 R; h
crash具体指什么情况,我觉得首先应该讨论。
/ i. s3 P% p) o0 R象美国一些地方去年的房市低迷算不算crash——房价绝对值并没有降或小降?
+ X& D( }$ |1 H/ {& j如果不算,以我对经济的理解,如果没有第三次世界大战,crash不会出 ...

5 E- Z+ S3 k* K' z* R; y3 B$ V
4 q; T5 P  f9 Q( ~( S  u# A2 Kcrash, 按这里看跌派的说法是10%以上. 所以美国去年的情况就算crash. 我们可以换个词来说更准确, slow down, 或者用中文说:调整.1 O1 o% }' q7 w$ k# Y

/ e8 Y4 R/ [9 ?5 g  f6 p* BToronto的房子近几年确实没有crash, 但确实slow down了.
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 16:03 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 wallyy 于 2007-3-9 15:59 发表
/ ^+ p  j; X$ [  q& r$ z. ^- t5 l( p

  w6 J) W% P2 X
1 @9 ^8 p) X4 u5 C5 e政府的房子,五年房价中不包括地价,而且,The City will guarantee the homes are only sold to first-time buyers and will determine the best way to ensure affordability, such as holding a seco ...
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希望你能申请得到, 政府的福利房并不是那么好申请的, 就算你够条件了, 轮不轮到你头上很难说. 轮到了猴年马月能住进去就更难说.
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 16:08 | 显示全部楼层

谢谢给我送花的同学们, 多的话我就不说了, 感动无语ing.....

老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
谢谢给我送花的同学们, 多的话我就不说了, 感动无语ing.....
鲜花(4348) 鸡蛋(18)
发表于 2007-3-9 16:10 | 显示全部楼层

回复 #22 wallyy 的帖子

5年的地税也就几千块而已。对于负担得起的人而言吸引力不大。
5 j. p  [3 p' [' F" F4 ]. Z& y* ]  a' `比如我就肯定不会去买,即使我现在没有房,原因嘛我就不说了(免得有歧视之嫌),不过你可以看看洋人的反应——卖房子搬家,离开这些廉价屋。这也是为什么短期内刺激其他地方房市的原因。
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-3-9 16:12 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 紫光 于 2007-3-9 16:10 发表
0 ^5 b$ p' k4 Y5年的地税也就几千块而已。对于负担得起的人而言吸引力不大。3 L* U! {1 s5 ?) g! S
比如我就肯定不会去买,即使我现在没有房,原因嘛我就不说了(免得有歧视之嫌),不过你可以看看洋人的反应——卖房子搬家,离开这些廉价屋。这也 ...

' K- p* ]' Q: o3 n* Btwinbrook不会成为第二个millwood吧? 那riverbend的住户都危险了.
鲜花(4348) 鸡蛋(18)
发表于 2007-3-9 16:16 | 显示全部楼层

回复 #27 dgg 的帖子

我想还不至于了,毕竟才1000套大概3000人而已,不过我认识的一个洋人住twinbrook,准备4月卖房。
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-3-9 16:26 | 显示全部楼层

回复 #26 紫光 的帖子

老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Agree!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-3-9 16:28 | 显示全部楼层
总的来说,dgg 还是比较客观的。。。送花奖励。。。看看你的鲜花是不是多了1朵?哈哈
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