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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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5 [( l' _3 k/ j8 T e1 G5 D& {+ n9 l" A有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。( r0 U9 I: D1 N9 Y7 P/ a- X
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this. M# W. ^, Q! T" p* k
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.# z7 `% _& R5 B0 Y; D
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.3 w5 \7 U& l5 @6 } m( |3 y
6 G. |7 U# @# c3 N; Z6 jNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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4 k" ?- `& l& J! j$ G# @“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”- }8 W0 ]$ g+ f0 r. v7 j( H, I
0 s4 ^' U' F6 ?! {0 M& vCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”# V, i- H E9 K) s
/ z' I t3 f4 I: rThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.7 ]( j. `% y! C
* ?, A8 f% \; \2 b8 hYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”1 |: P$ _2 C" M6 ^6 W8 Y6 Q' X7 S
3 U1 A4 p5 Y ]) d( w% D“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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4 @3 ?. t- o6 _6 Z a6 ILooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking 4 c F5 [% M- q4 i
Around.”
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. R8 h: e! d2 QFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.+ Z$ E2 {! x9 E- P( C. Z
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Source: CNBC1 \9 G6 A# F9 [: b, X9 R
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