油砂的黑色魔力

Magrath · 发表于 2007-1-20 21:33

油砂的黑色魔力

http://www.fortunechina.com/archives/200512-138.htm
加拿大阿尔伯塔省的石油储量位居世界第二，仅次于沙特阿拉伯。不过，这些石油不是液态的。我们走访了盛产油砂的新兴都市麦克默里堡，一场黑色淘金热正在那里兴起

作者: Abrahm Lustgarten
佩德罗•穆吉卡（Pedro Mujica）弯腰站在本垒，身上穿的加拉加斯队金色球衣随风摆动。投手快速将球掷出，穆吉卡挥棒把球打向左场，然后向二垒冲去，但上垒未果，被杀出局。站在边线的哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉球员都喊了起来: “出局啦，出局啦！”
眼前的情形并不陌生。只不过，此时虽是 8 月，天气已经很冷，还刮著大风。而且这块场地也远离南美洲，差不多是在你能打棒球的最北的地方。这里是加拿大阿尔伯塔省的麦克默里堡，从前是皮毛交易站，距北极圈比距美国北部边界更近。也许你会奇怪，这里会住著 40 个来自委内瑞乐家庭。可是，近来世界各地的人正纷纷涌向这里，比如纽芬兰岛、南非和印度尼西亚。穆吉卡说: “在这儿，他们给了我第二个机会。”他在 1998 年乌戈　查韦斯掌权后失去了在委内瑞乐工程师工作，今年 1 月被壳牌加拿大公司（Shell Canada）聘用。
麦克默里堡是一个日益膨胀的新兴城市。它有一条商业街，旁边是居民区，居民区的街道近乎平行地排列，都与商业街相连，形成的布局很像鱼骨。在这里的星巴克买一杯咖啡可能要花 45 分钟时间。到晚上，在“矿工”和“油罐”等酒吧里总是挤满了人。停车场上，停满了各种越野车，来这儿的也不仅仅是工人。投资人、国际公司、创业家都跑到这里，试图在加拿大日益繁荣的油砂工业中分得一杯羹。
不同于科威特和得克萨斯油井中喷出的滑润原油，油砂基本上是一团黑泥巴。奥罗拉矿井（Aurora）一位名叫彼得•杜根（Peter Duggan）的经理说: “它就像在一桶砂子里面倒上用过的机油。”经营该矿的是埃克森（Exxon）、康菲（ConocoPhillips）等数家公司创建的合作企业 Syncrude。经过一系列复杂的程序（见本文所附图表），黑泥巴就变成了可以供汽车使用的汽油。
加拿大公司在阿尔伯塔省采油砂，有将近 40 年了，但由于生产成本比最便宜的传统型原油高出七倍，在油价高升之前，从未出现过采油砂热。美国独立石油协会（Independent Petroleum Association of America）副总裁弗雷德里克•劳伦斯（Frederick Lawrence）说: “油砂潜力巨大。”《石油与天然气杂志》（Oil & Gas Journal）估计，从阿尔伯塔的油砂中，可开采出 1,745 亿桶石油，仅次于沙特阿伯 2,640 亿桶的估计储量，可满足加拿大 250 年的需要。如果算上以当今科技尚不能开采的矿藏，阿尔伯塔蕴藏的石油可能达 1.6 万亿桶。
占领这些宝藏的竞争已经展开。美国管道公司金德尔摩根（Kinder Morgan）的首席执行官理查德•金德尔（Richard Kinder）说: “油砂现在是美国原油业最重要的发展方向，也是全世界最重要的发展方向之一。我们花了一年时间寻找正确的方向。” 9 月份，金德尔摩根公司同意出资 56 亿美元，收购加拿大沥青砂企业特拉森公司（Terasen）。协议公布后一天，法国石油巨头道达尔（Total）拨款 11 亿美元，收购另一家加拿大企业─迪尔克里克能源公司（Deer Creek Energy）。紧随这些收购行动的，是中国人的投资。5 月，中石化收购了 Synenco 公司 40% 的股份，中海油也向 MEG 能源公司（MEG Energy）和一个管道项目投资。
中国目前在这一领域的投资微不足道，仅为 2.25 亿美元。但它向加拿大管道制造商 Enbridge 提议，从麦克默里铺设管道，每日将 40 万桶石油输送至太平洋的一个港口。外界普遍认为，这已经引起了华盛顿的注意。7 月，财政部长约翰•斯诺视察了该地区。8 月，一个美国参议员代表团来访。副总统迪克　切尼本计划在 9 月份前往，后因卡特里娜飓风而改变行程。每天，加拿大的油砂产地和采油区要向美国输送 200 万桶石油，占美国石油进口的近 16%，加拿大石油出口的 99%。坎布里奇能源研究协会（Cambridge Energy Research Associates）全球油气资源主任罗伯特•埃塞尔（Robert Esser）说，加拿大是唯一一个向美国提供大量石油而且又对美国友好的国家。由切尼牵头编写的白宫 2001 年国家能源政策报告称，加拿大的油砂是“维持北美能源和经济安全的支柱”。
在这种情况下，中国增加投资的可能性引起了一些观察家的关注。中国可能会收购加拿大的 Suncor 能源公司。该公司是油砂开发的先行者，也是最后几家容易收购的公司之一。华盛顿的智囊机构之一全球安全分析研究所（Institute for the Analysis of Global Security）的联席所长加尔•卢夫特（Gal Luft）说: “如果我们把这些石油与中国共享，我们就必须到其他地方找补回来。这个地方可能是中东。所以，这个问题属于国家安全问题。”
目前，油砂在美国能源中只占一小部分。但它的产量在 2020 年预计将增加两倍，达到每日 300 万桶，到时候，它就变得重要了。届时，美国国内的石油产量预计将下降，它显然急于保护它后院的补给线。国会代表团对油砂田并不了解。过去，采油砂被看成是不切实际，只适于疯狂的投机者去做。不过，据壳牌加拿大公司负责油砂业务的高级副总裁尼尔•卡玛尔塔（Neil Camarta）称，自 20 世纪 80 年代中期以来，技术上的不断改进已经使每桶生产成本由 30 美元降到了 20 美元。壳牌加拿大公司是加拿大的 Albian Sands 油砂公司的主要合作伙伴，其他合作伙伴还有雪佛龙加拿大公司（Chevron Canada）和加拿大的西方油砂公司（Western Oil Sands）。比起中东地区 3 美元一桶的生产成本，油砂的生产成本依然很高。但随著成本继续下降、技术改良以及油价攀升，油砂正逐步成为主流。有 12 家以上的公司计划在今后 10 年投入 600 亿美元，用于建设新项目，或是扩大生产。
如果称麦克默里堡眼下的形势为繁荣，那就意味著衰退不可避免要发生，当地领导人对此烦恼不已。Suncor 公司负责油砂业务的执行副总裁史蒂夫•威廉斯（Steve Williams）说: “油砂将是加拿大今后 50 多年经济形势的决定因素。”但是，有很多地方可能会出问题。采掘和提炼过程需要大量消耗天然气，从油砂中提炼 5 桶石油所消耗的天然气，就相当于 1 桶石油。所以，如果原油价格降低而同时天然气价格提高，将产生破坏性的影响。
麦克默里堡还面临劳动力的严重短缺。一些乐观人士预测，产油量到 2047 年将高达每天 110 万桶。那么到那时候，劳动力短缺的形势就会很严重了。而且，对于这座城市能维持多高的增长水平，也存在很多疑问。它的学校和医疗体系已经面临压力，计划中的扩张将加重污水处理设备的负担，影响空气质量和地区环境。从全国角度讲，油砂增长造成二氧化碳排放量增加，将使加拿大无法恪守在东京议定书中的承诺。
阿尔伯塔的油砂区蕴藏在植被茂盛的湿地和未开发的温带森林下面，像一条黑色长带绵延在有 1.2 亿年历史的海岸。阿萨巴斯卡河谷深深地嵌入在这一地段当中。地表附近的油砂可以露天开采，经清洗后可以得到一种粘稠的焦油，即“沥青”。但是，阿尔伯塔的可开采储量有将近 80% 位于地下深处，只能采用昂贵的就地开采技术。油砂要以蒸汽加热，直到它滴出油来，再吸出地面。
由麦克默里堡往北 64 公里，便是 Syncrude 的奥罗拉油砂矿。站在已经塌陷的矿坑边缘向下望去，映入眼帘的是黑漆漆的一个坑。这个坑有 3.2 公里宽，2.4 公里长，深入石灰石岩床近 60 米。机械铲在矿坑内四周抓起黑色石块，形状很像城市中的铺路石。十几辆装卸车像蚂蚁一般在斜坡上上下下，把石块运送到破碎机。破碎机再将石块压碎，并同泥浆搅拌，再由分离管道喷出，然后逐步提炼出真正的石油。这是一个成本高昂、对环境影响极大且耗时长久的过程。从开始建设油砂生产装置到生产出第一桶石油，差不多需要七年时间。
下到矿坑深处，便可感到运营规模的庞大。杜根经理开著一辆雪佛兰 Suburban SUV，颠簸在一条木排路上，路面上留下了很深的轮胎痕迹。车的后保险杠上插著一根 1.83 米高的旗杆，上面挂著一面橙色旗帜，称为“马鞭”，如此可以确保他不被装卸车碰到。那些装卸车是全世界最大的交通工具，每个轮胎近两吨重，高达 4.2 米，要爬上两节楼梯才能到达驾驶的座位。我看到，在其中一辆的驾驶室里，操作员吉姆•洛克（Jim Locke）在大声喊叫，他的车足有 3,700 马力，正拖著 397 吨沙土缓缓行进。吉姆说，驾驶这辆车的感觉就像是“回到家里，爬上两层楼梯，来到第三层的卧室，然后开著你的家到市中心去。”
这种机械的规模和车辆的强大动力，有助于降低生产成本。壳牌的卡玛尔塔说: “我们生产的是小东西。沥青分子从地下开采出来，去掉沙子，到卖给炼油厂，要经过很多步骤。生产越有效、越可靠，单位成本就越低。”老式的勺轮和传送带已经被更灵活的卡车和机械铲所取代，新型设备可以对副产品加以再利用，并过滤排放物。2001 年以来，产量增加了一倍，油砂终于有了开采价值。业界认为，油价达到 27 美元时，油砂炼油即有利可图。这种说法值得商榷。但现在的油价已到了 65 美元，显然有赚头。
行业的权威杂志《石油与天然气杂志》对世界各地的石油储量做过排名。该杂志在 2003 年认定，阿尔伯塔估计的储量可信。阿尔伯塔能源部长格雷格•墨尔钦（Greg Melchin）说，这是吸引新投资的一个重要因素。行业中的每家老牌公司都在大举扩张，但这需要招募 3 万名新雇员。它们把大本营扎在新不伦瑞克，飞往南美招聘，支付不菲的奖金，引来世界各地像穆吉卡这样的石油工人。壳牌发言人珍妮特•安塞利（Janet Annesely）说: “我们每年要招 700 人，连续招 10 年。真是架招聘机器。”
增长，使麦克默里堡持续面临压力。早晨 5 点半，蒂姆•霍顿斯面包店（Tim Hortons）外就已经排起了队。女服务员的 T 恤衫写著“欢迎加盟”，表明面包店已经很长时间人手不足了。在麦当劳、Safeway、星巴克，也面临同样的情况。沃尔玛不久前安装了自动结算柜台。这里不仅零售人员缺乏，还缺少医生和政府职员。
1961 年，即在 Suncor 开采油砂之前 6 年，麦克默里堡只有 1,100 名居民。1996 年达到 36,000 人。现在是 61,000 人，未来几年可能达到 10 万。这样的增长速度远远超过了城市最大的接受能力。几年前，穿过该地区的高速路开通了第二条车道，但该社区还缺少红绿灯、污水容纳设备、教室和病床。住房空置率几近于零。地区规划负责人贝思•桑德斯（Beth Sanders）说: “等我们成了一座有 10 万人口的城市，我们就必须有个城市的样子，而不能只是一个采矿小镇。这将是个大规模的转变。”
安娜•桑切斯（Ana Sanchez）原来在委内瑞拉国家石油公司 PDVSA 上班，被 Suncor 公司聘用后来到这里，她面临的最大困难是寻找住处。在麦克默里堡，一居室的公寓每月租金要 1,700 美元。购买新房的平均花费在过去两年增长了一倍，达 36 万美元。如今，她和丈夫何塞•德席尔瓦（Jos� DeSilva）刚买了一套三居室，房子门前生长著一块鲜绿的草地。德席尔瓦说: “我们竞购了十套房子，才买到这套。”两口子今年都是 31 岁，去年 11 月把出生不久的女儿接到了麦克默里堡。在这里过冬带给他们难忘的教训，比如如何给汽车充电、别让舌头贴上金属栏杆等。他们还学会在买房时怎么出价。德席尔瓦说: “我们是在大年夜听说有这套房子的，第二天一早就报了价。”
来加拿大后，桑切斯直接去上班，德席尔瓦上英语课。班上的学生来自世界各地，最远的来自中国。每个人都渴望学好英语，以便到石油公司工作。这个行业工资很高，像桑切斯这样的化学工程师一年最多可挣 10 万美元，但镇上的其他工作待遇不高，刚够生活。
但这并不能阻止人们的涌入。布莱恩•沃诺科特（Brain Wonnocott）来自安大略省布莱斯托克，今年 22 岁，长著一副好身板和一张娃娃脸。今年 7 月，他突发奇想来到这里。“我的第一印象是风景很美，但可做的事不多。几天后，我就开始觉得我犯了个错误。”但在新兴的城市，只要赶巧就能碰上好工作。第三周刚开始，他就得到了五个应聘机会，薪水最高的是每小时 27 美元。讲到工资的时候，他两眼发亮: “真不老少呢！”他选择了为 Suncor 的一家承包商开推土机的工作，工资当场支付。他说: “这些工作就像临时空缺出来。就像是: ｀那个家伙没来，你能开装卸机么？＇”沃诺科特现在做起了加拿大石油公司的股票交易，继续利用他的好运。“借著一次成功，再争取新的成功，感觉真棒。”
在这个依靠石油而繁荣并且正沉浸于增长喜悦中的城市里，人们较少谈论为提炼油砂付出的环境代价。麦克默里堡是一座石油城市，人们不是从事石油业，就是为从事这一行的人提供服务。然而，随著投资大量涌入，人们也开始讨论这一行业的负面影响。今年 8 月的一天，污染物把雷雨云染成了红色，让午后的天空变得黯淡如黄昏。当地电台的音乐节目主持人凯尔•雷德曼（Kyle Reedman）说: “但愿他们能发明出什么神奇的技术，把这些东西全弄走。”
从油砂提炼石油是个能源密集型流程，在这一过程中，很多有害物质被排放到大气里。尽管近年来，石油公司已经在减少每桶石油的污染气体排放方面取得了进展，但有害物质仍然很多，其中有致癌物苯和铅。加拿大的一家智囊机构彭比纳合理发展研究所（Pembina Institute for Appropriate Development）的研究人员丹•沃尼洛韦兹（Dan Woynillowicz）说: “迟早有一个时间点，会出现倾斜点（tipping point），也就是说对周边地区的居民和物种产生不可逆转的影响。”
最大的担心是温室气体排放。据卡尔加里油砂咨询公司 Strategy West 总裁鲍伯•丹巴尔（Bob Dunbar）透露，石油行业每年排放的二氧化碳达 2,600 万吨，至 2020 年，将提高到 8,200 万吨。根据有关减少温室气体排放的全球性协议《京都议定书》（加拿大在批准这一协议时遭到了阿尔伯塔省的强烈反对），加拿大在 2012 年之前必须使本国的温室气体排放低于 1990 年水平的 6%，即降到 5.6 亿吨。而在 2003 年，排放总量已经达到 7.4 亿吨。
4 月份，加拿大联邦政府公布一项耗资 85 亿美元的减少温室气体排放战略，称这项战略足以解决问题。但有人不信。丹巴尔说: “你根本不可能在行业像原来那样增长的同时让加拿大兑现承诺。”他还说，要让加拿大遵守《京都议定书》，只有高价购买二氧化碳排放额度才能办到。加拿大希望在明年初开始购买。但这样做很可能增加油砂公司的生产成本。能源部长墨尔钦表示: “排放量肯定会大量增加，除非关闭这个行业，再贴上｀关门大吉＇的标志。我们不会这么做的。我们人口增加了，机会也增加了很多倍，如何保持 1990 年的排放水平？”
从烟囱里冒出的东西只是诸多问题之一。距 63 号高速路经过 Syncrude 公司中心部门的地方数公里，有一条岔道通向一片新生的森林。那里种有云杉、白桦、白杨，水牛在草地上吃草，风景如田园般美丽。这片土地从前是个矿坑，20 年后，它得到了很好的恢复，成了其他地方的样板。按规定，石油公司必须恢复因开矿而破坏的地貌。这些公司也在加紧这么做。但是，开采活动的增长要快得多。经过 38 年的开矿，已经没有一块加拿大政府认可的“已恢复”土地了。
在森林附近用木材搭建的了望台上，会看到另一番景象。满眼都是废渣池，面积广大，池壁高达 30 米，池里全是难闻的死水。这些池塘绵延数公里，有十来个，被隐藏在公众看不到地方，远离路口。但卫星照片显示，它们占据的区域可能和麦克默里堡一样大。这些是在用水的生产过程中产生的废水，生产一桶油，平均需要四桶水。（这个行业的供水充足，每年的用水量相当于休斯敦市。）尽管技术进步能够使大部分水得到净化，但累积影响十分巨大。它消耗了阿萨巴斯卡河流量的 15%。而这些废水都储存在池子里，几乎不会流回大自然。
现在还不知道如何处理这些含有盐、石油和微量元素的池子。沿著池壁安装了定时发射的丙烷炮，还有穿著矿井制服的稻草人，人们管它们叫沥青人。丙烷炮和稻草人都是用来吓跑候鸟的。一些池子正在缓慢恢复原貌，它们的有毒沉淀物被吸入较小的池子，再填上像海滩那样干净的沙子。油砂公司为了缩小这些池子对环境的影响范围，曾计划把它们全部用粘土封起来。但加拿大国家能源委员会在 2004 年的一份研究报告中称: “必须不断建造池塘，（因为）没有已证实的再利用这些废水的手段。”
在麦克默里堡以北不到 50 公里，便是麦凯堡，一个人口不满 500 的贫穷小镇。在这里，可以强烈地感受到石油的入侵。居住在当地原住民村落的长者、有黑人血统的弗雷德•麦克唐纳（Fred MacDonald）过去常在阿萨巴斯卡河钓鱼，或在森林的泥沼里走上几个星期，放置捕捉水貂和河狸的夹子。对他来说，饱和砂的唯一用处是防止独木舟漏水。
以前，麦凯堡地处蛮荒，村落与矿井之间相隔很远。现在，矿井正在逼近。从麦克唐纳的厨房，可以看到南方 28 公里外 Syncrude 公司在米尔德雷德湖边设立的提炼厂冒出的烟。小镇的背后，是道达尔公司新盖的建筑。加拿大自然资源公司（Natural Resources）正投资 185 亿美元，将 46,538 公顷的土地开发为露天采矿区，该采矿区可与 Syncrude 最大的采矿区相比。明年春天，自然资源公司将每天在这里降落四架次波音 737 客机。在阿萨巴斯卡河对面，埃克芍一家分公司帝国石油（Imperial Oil）计划从 2007 年开始出资 67 亿美元，在租来的土地上开辟四个面积相当的油砂矿。这些只是大型的项目，还有 40 块租出去的土地等待开发。不出数年，麦凯堡就将被包围。
强劲的增长使阿尔伯塔省许多地方不但偿清了债务，还存下了数十亿元钱，麦凯堡也从油砂上获取了大量经济利益。Syncrude 主要招聘原住民，当地也涌现了几家公司，为油砂业提供服务。但增长也开始让一些人难以忍受。麦克唐纳已经为 Suncor 工作了好几年，他说: “如果他们在这儿只盖几家工厂，我们还可以忍受。但他们根本停不下来。”
目前，该地区的采矿业欣欣向荣，没有什么障碍能影响它的发展。米切尔•萨弗（Michel Sauver）医生说: “它已经成了单一工业城市”。萨弗对石油繁荣带来的影响毫不隐讳。在这里，对石油的需求最为迫切，城市基础设施、寻找劳工、保护水土等问题被放到了十分次要的位置。壳牌的安塞利站在一个矿井的顶部，双脚陷在散发著碳氢化合物臭气的泥巴里。她对我说: “闻到了吗？这是钱的味道！”
译者: 岱逸

THE DARK MAGIC OF OIL SANDS

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/f ... 3/8356746/index.htm

Canada's Alberta province has oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia's, but they're not a liquid asset. We visit Fort McMurray, the boomtown where oil-rich sands are mined--and a black-gold rush is on.

By ABRAHM LUSTGARTEN
October 3, 2005
(FORTUNE Magazine) –
Pedro Mujica settles in low over home plate, his golden Caracas jersey fluttering in the wind. The pitch comes in fast, and Mujica swings, lining the softball to left field. "Aut, aut," a throng of Venezuelan and Colombian players chant from the sidelines as Mujica is tagged out sliding into second.

It's a familiar scene, except that this August day is cold and blustery, and the field we're on is far from South America--about as far north as you can get and still play ball. It might seem strange to find 40 families from Venezuela living here in Fort McMurray, Alberta, a former fur-trading outpost closer to the Arctic Circle than to the northern border of the U.S. But lately people have been flooding in from places like Newfoundland and South Africa and Indonesia. "They've given me a second chance here," says Mujica, who lost his engineering job in Venezuela when Hugo Chavez came to power in 1998 and who was hired by Shell Canada in January.
Downtown Fort McMurray, where residential side streets hang like fish bones off a strip-mall spine, is bursting. Buying a cup of coffee at Starbucks can take 45 minutes, and bars like Diggers and the Oil Can are packed most nights. New F-150s, Durangos, and Excursions fill the parking lots, and it's not just workers who are coming. It's investment dollars, international corporations, and entrepreneurs, all looking for a stake in Canada's booming oil-sands industry.
Unlike the smooth crude oil that spurts from wells in Kuwait and Texas, oil sands are essentially black mud. "It's like you took a bucket of sand and dumped your old motor oil in it," says Peter Duggan, a manager at the Aurora mine, which is operated by Syncrude, a partnership of Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and several other companies. Through a complicated series of steps (see following diagram) the mud is transformed into gas you can put in your car.
Canadian companies have been mining Alberta's oil sands for nearly 40 years, but since production costs run seven times higher than for the cheapest conventional crude, the frenzy didn't really get going until oil prices spiked. "The oil-sands potential is huge," says Frederick Lawrence, a vice president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America. Oil & Gas Journal estimates that Alberta has 174.5 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in its oil sands, enough to meet Canada's needs for 250 years. That figure is second only to Saudi Arabia's estimated reserves of 264 billion barrels. All told, including deposits beyond the reach of today's technology, there could be 1.6 trillion barrels of oil embedded in Alberta.
The race to lock up those riches has begun in earnest. "The oil sands is the most significant development in crude oil in North America and one of the most significant worldwide," says Richard Kinder, CEO of the American pipeline company Kinder Morgan, which last month agreed to pay $5.6 billion for Canadian tar-sands player Terasen. "We've been looking for the right way in for a year." The day after that deal was announced, French oil giant Total put down $1.1 billion for Deer Creek Energy, another Canadian company. Those buys follow a string of new Chinese stakes: Sinopec acquired 40% of Synenco in May, and CNOOC invested in MEG Energy as well as in a pipeline project.
China's investments in the sector, about $255 million, are little more than a dabble so far, but a proposed venture with Canadian pipeline builder Enbridge to pipe 400,000 barrels a day from Fort McMurray to a Pacific port is widely believed to have caught Washington's attention. In July, Treasury Secretary John Snow toured the area. In August a delegation of U.S. Senators paid a visit. And Vice President Dick Cheney had scheduled a September trip before Hurricane Katrina forced him to change plans. Canada sends two million barrels a day to the U.S., from both oil sands and conventional drilling sites. That accounts for almost 16% of U.S. imports and 99% of Canada's oil exports. As Robert Esser, director of global oil and gas resources at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, puts it, Canada is the only U.S.-friendly country on earth where lots more oil is expected to come online. The White House's 2001 report on national energy policy, spearheaded by Cheney, called Canada's oil sands "a pillar of sustained North American energy and economic security."
In this context, the likelihood of increased Chinese investment--possibly leading to an acquisition of Canada's Suncor Energy, the pioneer in oil-sands development and one of the last companies still up for grabs--gives some observers pause. "If we have to share this oil with China, we are going to have to pick up the slack somewhere else," says Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a Washington think tank. "That will be the Mideast, and that becomes a national security issue."
The oil sands are only a small piece of America's energy puzzle. But with production expected to triple to three million barrels a day by 2020, it's an important one. Over the same period, U.S. domestic production is projected to fall, and the U.S. is clearly anxious to protect its backyard supply lines. Congressional delegations are new to the oil-sands patch, which has historically been considered a quixotic bet suited only to high-stakes mavericks. Since the mid-1980s, though, incremental improvements have driven down the cost of production from $30 a barrel to $20, according to Neil Camarta, senior vice president of oil sands for Shell Canada, the lead partner in Albian Sands, along with Chevron Canada and Western Oil Sands, a Canadian company. That's still a lot compared with the $3 it takes to produce a barrel in parts of the Middle East. But with costs coming down, technology improving, and the price of oil rising, the oil sands are becoming downright mainstream. More than a dozen companies are planning to spend $60 billion on new projects and expansions over the next decade.
To call what's happening in Fort McMurray a boom implies an inevitable bust, and that rankles local leaders. "This is something that will help define Canada's economy for 50-plus years," says Steve Williams, executive vice president for oil sands at Suncor. But plenty could go wrong. The mining and upgrading processes rely heavily on natural gas--as much as the equivalent of a fifth of a barrel of oil is required to extract one barrel from the sands. So a combination of lower crude prices and higher natural-gas prices would be devastating.
Fort McMurray also faces a critical shortage of labor, especially to meet the more optimistic forecasts, which stretch as high as 11 million barrels a day by 2047. And there are real questions about what level of growth the town can sustain. Its schools and health-care system are already under stress, and the planned expansions will further strain sewage-treatment facilities, air quality, and the region's environment. On a national scale, higher emissions related to oil-sands growth could undermine Canada's commitment to the Kyoto accord.
Alberta's oil sands lie like a black ribbon across a 120-million-year-old seashore, now buried below lush wetlands and virgin boreal forest. Where the Athabasca River Valley cuts deep into that ribbon, the sands near the surface can be strip-mined, cleaned, and transformed into a stiff tar called bitumen. But as much as 80% of Alberta's recoverable reserves lie deeper. They have to be coaxed out of the ground by costly in situ technologies, in which the sand is heated with steam until the oil drips off it and can be sucked out.
From atop the crumbling rim of Syncrude's Aurora mine, 40 miles north of Fort McMurray, one peers into a dark hole, two miles wide and a mile and a half long, that cuts nearly 200 feet into the limestone bedrock. From the sides of the mine, mechanical shovels claw black blocks that resemble chunks of city pavement. The cargo is loaded into dozens of dump trucks that look like ants as they ferry loads up ramping roads to crushers that break the clumps into small pieces, mix them with a watery slurry, and shoot the stuff through a pipeline for separation and eventual upgrading into real oil. It is an expensive, environmentally brutal, and time-consuming process. From the time the first shovel is turned for an oil-sands facility, it takes about seven years to see the first barrel of oil.
When you descend into the depths of the pit, the gargantuan scale of the operation becomes apparent. Duggan's Chevy Suburban shudders on a corduroy road imprinted by tire treads; mounted on his rear bumper is a six-foot-high orange flag, or buggy whip, so he won't be run over. These dump trucks are the largest vehicles in the world. Their tires, weighing 40,000 pounds each, are 14 feet tall, and you have to climb two flights of stairs to reach the driver's seat. In the cab of one of those trucks, operator Jim Locke shouts over the roar as the tractor's 3,700 horses strain under the 397 tons of dirt in the cargo box. Steering the truck, he says, is "like coming home, walking up two flights of stairs to your third-floor bedroom, then driving your house downtown."
The scale of this machinery and the mobility of the trucks have helped drive down production costs. "This is a widget business," Shell's Camarta says. "The bitumen molecule--you tear it out of the ground, knock the sand off it, and sell it to a refinery. There's a lot of steps in there, and the more efficient and reliable I can make them, the more the unit costs come down." The bucket wheels and conveyor belts of old have been replaced with more flexible trucks and mechanical shovels; upgraders have begun to reuse byproducts and filter emissions; and production, which has nearly doubled since 2001, is finally at a volume that makes the oil sands worthwhile. Whether production is profitable when oil is at $27 a barrel, as the industry claims, is debatable, but at $65, it's a clear winner.
When Oil & Gas Journal, a respected industry publication that ranks world reserves, recognized Alberta's estimates in 2003, the deposit gained credibility. That was an important factor in attracting new investment, according to Alberta energy minister Greg Melchin. Each of the established companies is in the midst of a major expansion project. But to make all this happen, the industry will need 30,000 new employees. It is recruiting in South America, flying in commuters from New Brunswick, and paying bonuses that draw oil workers like Mujica from around the world. "We're looking for 700 people a year, each year, for the next ten years," says Shell spokesperson Janet Annesely. "That's a recruiting machine."
The growth puts a steady pressure on Fort McMurray. At 5:30 A.M. at the Tim Hortons doughnut shop, there's a line out the door. The waitresses' T-shirts say JOIN US--a nod to understaffing's role in the long wait. It's the same story at McDonald's, Safeway, Starbucks. Wal-Mart recently installed automated checkout counters. And it's not just retail staff; there's a shortage of doctors and government employees too.
In 1961, six years before Suncor began mining, Fort McMurray had 1,100 residents. In 1996 there were 36,000. Now there are 61,000, a figure that could reach 100,000 in a few years--a rate of growth far beyond what the city ever expected to absorb. The highway that runs though the region got a second lane a few years ago, but the community remains short on traffic lights, sewage capacity, classrooms, and emergency-room beds. The housing vacancy rate is near zero. "If we're going to be a city of 100,000 people, we have to look like a city, not a mining town. That's a big shift to make," says the region's planning superintendent, Beth Sanders.
When Suncor recruited Ana Sanchez from her job at Venezuela's PDVSA, the toughest part of her move was finding a place to live. A one-bedroom apartment in Fort McMurray can rent for $1,700 a month, and the average cost of a new home has doubled in the past two years, to north of $360,000. "We must have bid on ten houses before we got this one," says her husband, José DeSilva, standing in their new three-bedroom house with fresh, green sod out front. The couple, both 31, and their baby daughter moved to Fort McMurray last November. They learned tough lessons about winter living--things like how to plug in your car and why you shouldn't touch your tongue to a metal railing. They also learned how to bid if they wanted a house. "We heard about it New Year's Eve and made an offer the next morning," DeSilva says.
While Sanchez went straight to work, DeSilva enrolled in English classes. There he met a diverse group of students from as far away as China. Each aspired to learn enough English to be able to work in the oil-sands business. Industry wages are good--chemical engineers like Sanchez can make up to $100,000--but most other jobs in town barely cover living costs.
That doesn't stop people from coming. Brian Wonnocott, 22, clean-cut and baby-faced, moved here on a whim in July from Blackstock, Ontario. "My first impression was, 'Nice scenery--there's not much to do,'" he says. "After a few days I started thinking I'd made a mistake." But in a boomtown, top jobs often go to those who show up at the right time. By the start of his third week, Wonnocott had five offers, some for as much as $27 an hour. His eyes light up as he recounts the sum--"a pantload of money." The job he took, driving a bulldozer for a Suncor contractor, was offered to him on the spot. "They're like, 'That guy didn't come in. Can you handle a loader?'" he says. To double down on his luck, Wonnocott now trades stock in Canada's oil companies. "It's nice to ride the coattails," he says.
What is talked about less often in a town reliant on oil and reveling in growth is the environmental price being extracted along with the sands. Fort McMurray is an oil town: Everyone either works in the industry or serves those who do. As investment pours in, though, the downsides of the industry are increasingly finding their way into discussion. On a recent August day thunderheads ran red with emissions that made a late-afternoon sky look like sunset, and local radio deejay Kyle Reedman took notice: "Hopefully they'll have come up with some magic technology that will just make all this stuff go away."
Producing oil from the tar sands is an energy-intensive process that puts a lot of bad stuff in the air. While companies have made progress reducing per-barrel emissions in recent years, they still spew out significant quantities of everything from benzene, a carcinogen, to lead. "At some point you will reach a tipping point, where there will be irreversible impacts to the people and species in the surrounding area," says Dan Woynillowicz, a researcher at the Pembina Institute for Appropriate Development, a Canadian think tank.
Top on the list of worries are greenhouse-gas emissions. The industry emits about 26 million metric tons of CO2 per year, a figure that could grow to as much as 82 million metric tons by 2020, according to Bob Dunbar, president of Calgary oil-sands consulting firm Strategy West. Under the Kyoto Protocol, a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gases that Canada ratified (over strong objections from Alberta), the nation is obliged to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to 6% below its 1990 level, or 560 million metric tons, by 2012. Total emissions in 2003 reached 740 million metric tons.
In April, Canada's federal government released a comprehensive $8.5 billion strategy for greenhouse-gas reductions that it says will more than do the job. Not everyone is convinced. "It's just not possible for the industry to grow the way it's been growing and for Canada to meet its commitments at the same time," says Dunbar, adding that only a hefty purchase of CO2 credits would enable Canada to comply. Yet any trading mechanism for CO2--Canada hopes to start one early next year--would probably raise the price of production for oil-sands companies. "Emissions are only going to go up multitudes, unless you want to shut it all down and put a sign up that says, WE'RE CLOSED," concludes energy minister Melchin. "That's not going to be our response. How do we stick to 1990 emissions levels when our population is greater and our opportunity is many times greater?"
What comes out of the smokestack is just one of the concerns. At a turnout a couple of miles before Highway 63 slices through the heart of Syncrude's operations, a trail leads off into young forest. Spruce, birch, and aspen have been planted here, and buffalo graze an idyllic pasture. This land was once a mine pit, and 20 years later, it is a small first model of how the earth can be restored. The oil companies are required to reclaim land disturbed by mining and have speeded up efforts to do so. But new mining operations are increasing much faster. And after 38 years of operations, not a single acre has been certified "restored" by the Canadian government.
A wooden lookout deck near the forest presents a different view: a panoramic expanse of tailings ponds--flat, brackish water held in by 100-foot-high levees. They stretch for miles. Roughly a dozen of these ponds are hidden from public view and road access, but satellite images reveal that their footprint can be as large as the city of Fort McMurray. They are the waste from a water-intensive process that can require an average of four barrels of water to produce one barrel of oil. (The industry's annual water allotment is enough for a city the size of Houston.) Improvements in technology are allowing much of that water to be cleaned up, but the cumulative effect--up to 15% of the flow of the Athabasca River--is huge. And because the wastewater is held in the ponds, very little is returned to nature.
It's not known exactly what will become of these ponds, which contain salts, trace metals, and oil. Along the levees, propane cannons fire at regular intervals. The cannon and scarecrows dressed in old mining uniforms (called bitu-men) are intended to ward off migrating birds. Some ponds are slowly being reclaimed, filled in with sand scrubbed clean as a white beach after the most toxic sediments are pumped into smaller ponds. The industry, which has made efforts to mitigate a wide range of environmental effects, plans to cap and seal these ponds with clay. But a 2004 study by Canada's National Energy Board says, "The ponds must be constructed to last indefinitely, [as] there is no demonstrated means to reclaim fluid fine tailings."
At Fort McKay, a tiny, palpably poor town of fewer than 500 people 30 miles north of Fort McMurray, the encroachment of oil is strongly felt. Fred MacDonald, a Metis tribal elder who lives in this First Nation community, used to fish from the shores of the Athabasca River and wander for weeks through the bogs of the boreal forest, laying traps for mink and beaver. The only use he had for the saturated sands was to waterproof his canoe.
Fort McKay used to be in wilderness, with miles between the community and the pits. Now the mines are closing in. From MacDonald's kitchen, a plume from Syncrude's Mildred Lake upgrader--the plant that converts the bitumen to synthetic crude oil--is visible 17 miles to the south. Directly behind the town is the new Total property. Canadian Natural Resources is investing $18.5 billion to develop 115,000 acres into a strip-mining operation that will compare with Syncrude's largest; next spring the company will begin landing four 737s a day there. Just across the river, Imperial Oil, an Exxon subsidiary, plans to open four mines on a similarly sized lease beginning in 2007, at a cost of $6.7 billion. And these are just the large projects. Some 40 new lease developments are also planned. Within a few years, Fort McKay will be surrounded.
Like the rest of the Alberta, whose strong growth has allowed the province to pay off debt and stash billions away, Fort McKay has reaped substantial economic benefit from oil sands. Syncrude makes a point of providing jobs to First Nation workers, and a handful of local companies have sprung up to service the industry. But the growth has begun to strike some people as overwhelming. "If they had just the few plants here, we could live with that," says MacDonald, who worked at Suncor for several years. "But it will never stop."
For now, exuberance about the area's new riches trumps the obstacles that might come the industry's way. Notes Michel Sauver, a doctor who has been outspoken about the effects of the oil boom: "This is a one-industry town." Concerns about civic infrastructure, finding labor, or stewardship of the land and water are running a distant second to a more tantalizing goal. Standing atop a mine pit, feet sinking into the mud amid the stench of hydrocarbons, Shell's Annesely fans the air with her hands. "Smell that?" she asks. "That's the smell of money."
FEEDBACK alustgarten@fortunemail.com

[ 本帖最后由 Magrath 于 2007-1-20 21:38 编辑 ]

Hope06 · 发表于 2007-1-21 10:19

It is too long, read it later. But the current production in Fort McMurray is not up to 1millinon barrel per day.

Phaeton · 发表于 2007-1-21 16:12

谢谢翻译！

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2007-1-21 16:34

27刀应该在几年前更可信。

狂吃 · 发表于 2007-1-21 17:11

原帖由 Magrath 于 2007-1-20 21:33 发表
) l: M8 z* l7 S9 p5 I6 p油砂的黑色魔力
5 h! x1 l$ o* {9 {! z1 G v+ v8 k1 p7 m7 _" F$ c
http://www.fortunechina.com/archives/200512-138.htm
* ]" n3 F5 m9 P/ {4 J+ q加拿大阿尔伯塔省的石油储量位居世界第二，仅次于沙特阿拉伯。不过，这些石油不是液态的。我们走访了盛产油砂的新兴都市麦克默里堡， ...

不错不错。

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2007-1-21 18:39

确实值得商榷。到了45刀，alberta就危险了。

原帖由 Magrath 于 2007-1-20 21:33 发表; V6 `: ^ F; t. C
油砂的黑色魔力& Q a& h/ S2 d7 U9 p

+ O' r3 D8 o$ ^+ x6 X7 k' H% {业界认为，油价达到 27 美元时，油砂炼油即有利可图。这种说法值得商榷。但现在的油价已到了 65 美元，显然有赚头。 ...

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-21 19:19

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2007-1-21 16:34 发表9 ]& y$ c7 R9 {
27刀应该在几年前更可信。

是的，最近的成本更低了一点。

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2007-1-21 19:27

你确信吗？我认识两个设计油砂的高级工程师，他们说目前成本增加很快，原材料费用、人口引起的原因。

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 19:19 发表
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j. U- w( L& t; b0 _& _& E- a7 O. p是的，最近的成本更低了一点。

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-21 21:15

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2007-1-21 19:27 发表
( S2 d9 h& L( Y. r: g- L# ?5 [4 J5 _你确信吗？我认识两个设计油砂的高级工程师，他们说目前成本增加很快，原材料费用、人口引起的原因。
+ d& ]- F( m% u9 ?# x, z0 `! w2 O' e: g9 B

具体数字我是不会讲的，但你知道我是成天和这些数字打交道的。我可能比你讲的 “高级工程师” 还高那么一点。

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2007-1-21 21:22

是好消息。那么，为什么油价才跌到50刀，很多项目就slow down了呢？也就是说，有利润不见得上，对吧？到了40刀，还能上吗？我估计不容易。

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:15 发表
* G8 \; y; E3 f$ M( X) M% q/ z- W+ F N& k$ \0 G: r6 n
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具体数字我是不会讲的，但你知道我是成天和这些数字打交道的。我可能比你讲的 “高级工程师” 还高那么一点。

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-21 21:35

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2007-1-21 21:22 发表
: Z3 s; U2 n3 A0 q8 \+ {8 g是好消息。那么，为什么油价才跌到50刀，很多项目就slow down了呢？也就是说，有利润不见得上，对吧？到了40刀，还能上吗？我估计不容易。2 f9 _$ t& D' t3 I
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项目slow down 或是 SPEED　ＵＰ的决定不是那么快的，和油价的价格有很大关系，但不会以短期的价格去那么快的掉转。

有很大原因是人力，环境，等等的因素。比如，近期有几个大的工程刚被批准了，但我们不能说是油价下降才会　ＳＰＥＥＤ　ＵＰ吧。

大公司的油沙工程都是战略性的行为，不会天天看着短期的油价改来改去。那不是开玩笑吗？

狂吃 · 发表于 2007-1-21 22:24

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:35 发表
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% M) o3 d% q2 I9 T: [2 D项目slow down 或是 SPEED　ＵＰ的决定不是那么快的，和油价的价格有很大关系，但不会以短期的价格去那么快的掉转。; E4 W; q  ~9 R8 Q* `  D
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有很大原因是人力，环境，等等的因素。比如，近期有几个大的工程刚被批准了，但我们不 ...

不错，眼光要放长一点。

Magrath · 发表于 2007-1-21 22:40

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 19:19 发表4 V: [; Z) `8 m& I# M, [
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0 m9 z0 j& O: S9 q是的，最近的成本更低了一点。

Magrath · 发表于 2007-1-21 22:43

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:15 发表$ u9 [" J9 x/ p, @0 Q

: A* B! T/ J# c8 t) u$ z1 O6 v. ~/ L' t; d7 m# G- s" V
具体数字我是不会讲的，但你知道我是成天和这些数字打交道的。我可能比你讲的 “高级工程师” 还高那么一点。

没想到，地瓜还真是老的辣！！

fancycat · 发表于 2007-1-22 11:36

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:15 发表% ~3 B3 `+ W6 ]5 H3 f

2 A, I& w& r* u! m; P' C* R6 u: y+ F& a+ y- a6 y
具体数字我是不会讲的，但你知道我是成天和这些数字打交道的。我可能比你讲的 “高级工程师” 还高那么一点。

够能吹啊。。。。

MyFairy · 发表于 2007-1-22 11:56

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:15 发表# y$ ?# o+ O! \* R0 P' c- q

1 v8 A3 b; a9 X4 s* a: p; M, e* ]$ W g
具体数字我是不会讲的，但你知道我是成天和这些数字打交道的。我可能比你讲的 “高级工程师” 还高那么一点。

这些数字 = $$$$$$$$$$$$

氧化剂 · 发表于 2007-1-22 12:07

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-21 21:35 发表
# m! _; I2 J: ]. V' K' H9 x- B9 f" ?- }& i1 r# T# D3 {

( R& Z: L- n+ z) ~2 o项目slow down 或是 SPEED　ＵＰ的决定不是那么快的，和油价的价格有很大关系，但不会以短期的价格去那么快的掉转。
5 Q% E8 p2 Z7 v* t' ^+ M* q/ {9 f
6 ?1 N. N+ s+ J! V. R$ M有很大原因是人力，环境，等等的因素。比如，近期有几个大的工程刚被批准了，但我们不 ...

还是有能人啊

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-22 21:16

原帖由 fancycat 于 2007-1-22 11:36 发表9 Y  k0 M2 a0 j5 t( P1 o
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2 q  ^/ s5 V% s# F4 U" T8 W& L# f够能吹啊。。。。

反正也不上税，那大家就一起吹吧。。。。

Magrath · 发表于 2007-1-22 21:54

原帖由 fancycat 于 2007-1-22 11:36 发表/ I$ h6 R ?! _" B: T. e
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6 b1 K' D% N y1 t够能吹啊。。。。

:fandui:

我有幸见过十年兄一面，我觉得他为人实在诚恳，待人亲切，是位和蔼可亲的老大哥！

:zuiai:

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-22 22:33

原帖由 Magrath 于 2007-1-22 21:54 发表
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" G* ^6 m7 t/ L# m! j3 }) l* u
+ ?/ o1 r2 C; R0 |$ ^" D5 r我有幸见过十年兄一面，我觉得他为人实在诚恳，待人亲切，是位和蔼可亲的老大哥！
4 n! L0 e; o$ s9 J# k# _* Z, z+ p  ^8 U6 N) |0 e6 E: M) X% U2 W
:zuiai: 0 n& {5 K! G  l. O

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5 `6 x3 E  z! i& y# ^$ ?

我真的是不好意思了。多谢了。真是过奖了。但我还是不知你是那一位呢？

Magrath · 发表于 2007-1-22 22:41

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-22 22:33 发表* o4 I0 a. o3 u% {7 F

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8 H* Q' {. F8 h' Z我真的是不好意思了。多谢了。真是过奖了。但我还是不知你是那一位呢？

哈哈, 我想你也不一定记得我了！

上次您和您的女友手拉手在Gateway电影院看“菊花台”，我就坐在你们后排！

一半清醒 · 发表于 2007-1-22 22:46

原帖由 十年移民路_ 于 2007-1-22 21:16 发表: l8 a8 X4 }- \# M! F, Z9 `- h% q
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QUOTE:/ R0 q8 {8 U& s2 p3 k9 R; B; A
原帖由 fancycat 于 2007-1-22 11:36 发表
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! C) P, z6 a/ F% x# l够能吹啊。。。。 8 ]* Z" p0 C7 h* l& R+ L) q
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反正也不上税，那大家就一起吹吧。。。。

十年有这个实力，不是吹。
倒是别的版有人总看不好爱城，总说要搬到一个好地去享受生活，不知道他们的实力如何!?

狂吃 · 发表于 2007-1-22 23:03

成竹在胸吗。。。。。。。。。呵呵

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2007-1-23 21:29

原帖由 Magrath 于 2007-1-22 22:41 发表" j5 V2 w  ^8 G1 v1 P: q, L
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$ B6 ~2 Z+ ^7 h5 Z哈哈, 我想你也不一定记得我了！
; I' V$ C  H1 z3 d# U, b+ L0 Z
: T' ?! ?! e7 x上次您和您的女友手拉手在Gateway电影院看“菊花台”，我就坐在你们后排！
" U  Z! r$ e# ~" L1 O* f" \" N5 K) y* I

% ]7 ~7 L) I" Y$ ^! w; f1 U7 R8 x5 k

Gateway电影院在那里啊？和那个女友啊？还手拉手？我那有那个艳福。

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