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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 20077 a7 D5 C) z& p
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
$ h; _6 U5 E9 z# q0 ^, rBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 z# B. l5 F! Y; D$ N/ u' c
+ q @% e B3 v) ~% p/ vMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 0 Q1 U; b" H" z8 M5 F# r
7 B9 a; N0 ]& o& s# fBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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: t% F0 f6 i& V$ f; f; @" `* Q _Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ! t7 Y, @/ g/ ^9 l! B
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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5 ~8 h$ W" U9 J# ?1 F( w"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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8 q0 b' m. ^/ d: k"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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( E/ y; U4 H# U& ?1 j"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ( @- \, C" s H$ ?
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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) X6 b/ |7 ~/ |" v. l1 T& P"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 7 ]: V$ \8 K* P, {" W
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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( J0 l* _; z) r9 p' dNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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. Q# i; `& Q4 i. mOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. % V5 s q" w1 T e) Y
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. * I- y1 d0 G3 i/ z1 k; D1 j
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. $ N: ?3 M0 z6 _' g( q: D! I5 n
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. $ L/ O4 t* O# \# X5 i* w9 ~
; _2 d) B5 o8 |8 F- ^2 XLet the good times roll. ( m3 J' {9 O8 _( T3 Q" i
/ e6 {( o% n8 i" s: \& kPrevious story: Bottom Line
9 Y2 S# }( Z3 b# ~& \2 d% g( HNext story: Building permits hit record. k. i) j5 N( e" M3 o
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