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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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" c; {+ Y, S! O4 z/ P In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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* r( Z5 i* e" m# z# k; c" vThu, January 11, 20070 I2 e! ~. {" N7 Z- k
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
' n: o& _2 W) B; vBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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, q7 [) ^# f9 Y: L# HThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. . C9 ^0 W8 v+ {! U) n2 F
8 B/ i w5 q' |) F! D$ mMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. % q/ U0 ?$ P) ~! i
& @) P( C% l8 KBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 6 ^- P+ r* ], K n/ f" X
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 1 Z0 k2 p0 I2 r# o5 T4 l
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. . L/ o: I+ q; F- I3 O
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 0 M8 G" H U8 H$ w) \! @
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 0 @, K, p2 f+ q8 Z' i6 u; E9 U
6 j$ y8 N, [ M5 q0 QStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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& [* I+ b1 ]% z# P) n! C* D1 A1 F- D"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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, K6 S: s' ?: y" e8 h9 x$ W" E"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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% u" p) \( u& e8 z! l3 fExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. * |2 `+ \) s" n# w' z$ E5 _+ y
$ p/ G7 a6 q! A! B2 P5 j' m- OOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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9 ~, X9 s) W+ p! F8 U/ n7 U, |"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. * @0 b3 x6 o |% d9 F( f6 Z3 v1 X1 Z
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 2 C( Q' U2 q e
0 m' a7 [+ o' w"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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. x: P) j7 b7 O5 ELet the good times roll.
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