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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts6 e$ ?8 v4 Q/ E, Y7 M4 x) w: F
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET& L9 C- d' y$ i2 C% D# q4 Z
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.+ f( K" `* Z' n% w" S
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.$ n; h, J0 i5 P! i( v3 X
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario./ |2 f2 v2 F4 Q: D1 |9 t( ?5 Y
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.# o+ M0 |: {+ ~$ f+ U
- p4 M; p! d0 _9 h T7 lIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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# J1 x+ F! u# ]) k+ j5 v“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.0 L$ x% u0 g% d3 f" C5 s7 G9 u8 V
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn., R/ `& N ~( z9 ?( O% t) t8 d
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%., l$ Y$ J3 j1 h, y2 j% {
2 j- E" S4 \6 S4 ?2 Y1 H$ O( JIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.+ B# h5 c6 R9 U1 g6 ^0 [& O
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7 P/ v" a# X$ _1 U/ V2 [Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
9 m% Z+ b$ M8 K. e% ^6 y# tCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’# C7 t/ b/ V. {; I6 x J. {
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over3 `6 P( I6 J+ J, D, ?" E
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8 L3 {' m# E1 d5 kThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.7 k( {2 w0 m* p& t' L" C# t
7 b, X. F$ Z( l6 [' Q“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.2 W" x7 n2 x0 x: D( Q5 o
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.# E5 Z5 F7 A3 Z( [/ |- K6 }
/ m7 w6 M; j2 t+ _1 PContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.5 u; T$ _8 {4 L2 }! i7 \# m+ j$ o
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.; }% ^/ B1 [" G, Q# {
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.3 @' K3 c9 o# Z( W1 f
( ~& g: e5 b& ~3 A/ \0 y* |, QThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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6 \. N/ o" F4 r, x+ bTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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