 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
2 M4 \* M2 ?& Q( k+ E4 C
5 E# j/ n: x: q2 u7 f) WRepublish Reprint, Z! V3 E; E, _7 ^; I2 v
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
w* _$ l0 T" [8 R0 HMore from Gordon Isfeld% V( F/ `" l! P
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.+ S5 m/ q3 D: c. a
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
5 X7 n, }; p+ K. y; i' B Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
, ~# r" M3 m @2 m6 S. T9 d' j: |OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.0 \' y e \! S* X7 N# V
4 `, U6 B% v" eThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
2 ]. {6 ?2 J" q0 w3 N, v0 k4 d& F. p9 S! D
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”1 y1 H p* y. V: J% N* e
/ O# ~ o: Z" h2 a2 ^1 J9 ~* t6 mMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year./ |: `! ~5 [, H) F8 X
* B, R" h0 W0 U5 f8 B( e- p1 W1 b
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
+ m% K# D% z/ [) W
/ X! u/ J& ]; K8 F; G" JAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
, L3 k- {$ j9 o, X" W/ F- J+ I) u
4 X5 Z! j; D& x3 O/ oHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
5 {6 E& K e/ a5 i. j% H6 D5 i" a2 V, y
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
) J. Q$ t' D2 s8 u. R$ l
1 Y; j- c7 B( U1 {6 @; ~6 WRelated$ L$ ?0 f3 \) {( H4 n
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
+ \ l4 b) ~' a2 d# L1 [* k7 P& o/ qCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
! o) B- x; v4 X2 {' X! A6 ZThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over/ ^8 @5 e/ i* z9 M5 K7 g
Advertisement
4 n" j& y1 c1 c. ]3 M6 v# v& q! W+ n( h( U7 Z1 x" i, j0 v; K
/ Q+ E9 q- ^$ q# \' N, ~5 G9 zThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.: U+ a# N% m% ^ k, Z$ X
9 }6 k6 T+ K* _9 O" N1 H
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
- N$ x C: |9 Z# O( Y6 U
) z) S- O8 p6 R8 AFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
; [$ c+ H4 {% ^' H& J1 K* l. a% Q
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
9 |7 n3 {) _3 g8 `4 x4 l# J, g& ~7 U$ X" ~
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
& o3 U R+ {, g# i3 d% B
) d: m% c: N+ Y. f$ A. p) I2 B4 HThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
6 b4 {% H8 F+ M) e1 L" o% p7 ^* v$ q
1 W3 f) ?' `: n9 v/ B- V# MMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.3 C2 n, B/ q/ D! e
8 _& o- x' X7 o) [The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
, Q- ]1 y) Z# @2 H
1 R- C" Q' g, T/ b: j" |“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
, q8 i% }0 |/ y( s' G, ]# P' S+ q: @2 o
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.6 q- {8 B5 W7 t" M2 ^
& E9 ^& |- a# S* V2 m" [& d u“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
