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油价降,房价会跟跌吗?

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鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-1 21:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
油价几连跌,会带动这个以能源为支柱的城市的房价下跌吗?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-1 23:15 | 显示全部楼层
理论是会降的。但何时降,降多少, 没人会知道。
鲜花(22) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2014-12-1 23:40 | 显示全部楼层
降是肯定的事,除非油价能快速反弹。房价有个滞后1年左右。理由是油价跌了,公司会先撑一撑再裁人,被裁的也会撑一撑再不得已卖房。阿省的平均家庭负债在加拿大是最高的,经济严重单一化除了能源业已经一无所有,房价在过去10年已经暴涨了2倍,连续40年执政的政府已经习惯性的腐败浪费,所以房价灾难性下跌的风险是很高的。1 k; d: a, L# r9 e+ [+ p

. A% i+ f+ n, R3 [+ L) p! w+ h目前裁人才刚刚小规模开始,估计年后会有大动作。要到明年夏天才会在房价上体现出来。
鲜花(24) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-1 23:46 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
楼主你这个论题就没打到痛点,现在该讨论的不是房价降不降的问题,而是埃德蒙顿失业率的问题,都没活干了,连养家都成问题,还谈什么买房?
鲜花(140) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-1 23:47 | 显示全部楼层
加国央行明年5月即开始加息,房价会跟跌一些
鲜花(76) 鸡蛋(4)
发表于 2014-12-2 02:33 | 显示全部楼层
qiaohe 发表于 2014-12-1 23:47) Z0 T; a; n- v& }+ h3 g  k
加国央行明年5月即开始加息,房价会跟跌一些

; z3 r1 a7 S0 J5 T: sreally ? I doubt ..........................
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-2 07:59 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
cyz0116 发表于 2014-12-2 02:33
1 f: j1 Q  v4 p  K  L1 f: Z/ v% Jreally ? I doubt ..........................

' R) F' g. P, J! V* r4 b! S8 U上个月做贷款的时候已经没以前好办了,据银行的人说,他们了解到,可能在明年下半年调息。央行一般一次调0.25
鲜花(332) 鸡蛋(23)
发表于 2014-12-2 08:43 | 显示全部楼层
qiaohe 发表于 2014-12-1 23:47
' l0 F, J' C  \& Q) Q1 A加国央行明年5月即开始加息,房价会跟跌一些

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鲜花(34) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-3 08:22 | 显示全部楼层
归根到底, 失业率才是Edmonton房产市场的晴雨表!
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-4 19:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
本帖最后由 cats 于 2014-12-4 19:09 编辑
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qiaohe 发表于 2014-12-1 23:47
8 p+ D: r2 u, N7 R# j0 g加国央行明年5月即开始加息,房价会跟跌一些
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严重同意你的 观点。不仅加国央行计划明年5月即开始加息美联储也计划明年夏季加息。再加上近期石油价格持续走低,从8月份开始,ALBERTA 的大型石油公司(包括 Consulting 公司)的新上石油项目几乎全部取消或推迟,严重依赖石油的 ALBERTA 就业已经受到严重影响。Calgary 大批的 Lay-off 已经开始,卡飘已经开始 渐渐逃离。预计明年 日子不会好过。善意提醒:同仁们要做好心理准备。
大型搬家
鲜花(42) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-4 19:47 | 显示全部楼层
不怕, 反正有大笔现钞可以安全过冬
老柳教车
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-5 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
加国央行明年5月即开始加息?????
鲜花(26) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-5 11:26 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
cats 发表于 2014-12-4 19:031 T4 i! b5 L% x: P- E& e
严重同意你的 观点。不仅加国央行计划明年5月即开始加息,美联储也计划明年夏季加息。再加上近期石油价 ...
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Calgary bucks national trend with job growth in November
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MARIO TONEGUZZI, CALGARY HERALD. z/ [+ a4 J7 D6 {# Y
More from Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
" R. W& Q% P, s) F8 W! N, SPublished on: December 5, 2014Last Updated: December 5, 2014 10:23 AM MST
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9 O$ y; o3 G# T! FADJUST
  [& g5 u5 s+ i! K$ {: G! v7 UCOMMENT
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3 d$ H2 e/ P& x7 @1 \; rWhile jobs were down nationally, Calgary bucked the trend with a rise in employment, Statistics Canada reported Friday.' E% B* V1 u7 X7 V# O

7 F$ w3 }; c+ v  E; E" V3 x& \9 IBut the data comes prior to the possible impact of declining oil prices.
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& j+ U7 \3 L, K- w. ]; ^% iEmployment in the Calgary area rose by 4,700 people, or 0.6 per cent from October. Calgary’s new jobs pushed the province into positive territory on employment, as well — net employment in the province was up 3,200, or 0.1. per cent.4 s; \; K. w2 p0 C

3 c; y: R* g2 ~2 s7 I( F0 X. P# K3 JHowever, across Canada employment dipped by 10,700 people, or 0.1 per cent.
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: M$ D# `6 C" \3 FCalgary’s unemployment rate fell to 4.4 per cent from 4.6 per cent in October. Alberta’s unemployment rate remained the same at 4.5 per cent while Canada’s rose to 6.6 per cent from 6.5 per cent.% \2 e& }9 n4 a3 `& F! Y

' A2 g% m* K# z0 ]4 y3 p; QOn a year-over-year basis, Calgary saw job growth of 2.2 per cent, or 17,400 people, while Alberta had the same rate of growth, adding 50,500 positions. In Canada, employment was up by 0.8 per cent or 146,000 people.
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7 p' X7 D/ S9 C“If plummeting oil prices are expected to bring waves of layoffs in Alberta, it appears that companies in the province haven’t bought into the panic – at least not yet. In fact, last month the number of jobs in our province actually increased,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial.
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“There were significant gains in construction (9,100), health care and social assistance (6,500) and even in oil and gas (4,700) – the sector around which there is some worry at the moment. While the price drop for West Texas Intermediate probably overstates the price for Western Canadian oil, there is no question that producers in this province are seeing lower cash flow.”% L5 j+ v4 ?0 h/ g" s; W
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While the number of jobs increased, there may still be some cracks starting to show in the energy sector, he said.
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“Employment in professional, scientific and technical services took a big hit — a loss of 11,000 jobs. Occupations in this category include geologists, engineers, accountants, lawyers and technicians — the kinds of services acquired by oil and gas producers. Even though they didn’t lay off any of their own workers, energy producers may be starting to pull back on contracts with external service providers.3 }: O# ?& z/ ~. |
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“Also, the survey of employment was conducted between November 9 and 15 — and since then the price of Western Canadian Select blend oil has slumped another $10 per barrel. It’s almost certain that at least some job losses in the province are still to come.”6 @% y4 k2 ^$ _
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Alberta’s unemployment rate was second lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan’s 3.4 per cent.
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The Alberta government said the unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month because the labour  force increased by 3,900 people and employment increased by 3,200. Full-time employment increased by 3,300 and part-time employment decreased by 100 over the same period.' J: d. R5 y- i% f- `

; k7 T, F, |$ J  JThe annual increase in employment in Alberta accounted for 34.6 per cent of Canada’s employment growth, it said.
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Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said employment has softened in Alberta but the jobless rate remains low.
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6 |$ [+ M5 u2 X6 q“It’s too soon to assess any impact from the recent slide in oil prices,” he said.
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Kavcic said private-sector jobs in Canada fell by 45,600, but full-time work expanded by 5,700.! q! E; S  B; `
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The weaker than expected decline in employment in November can be forgiven considering the extraordinarily strong gains of 117,200 over the previous two months, said David Madani, Canada economist with Capital Economics, adding that average monthly job gains over the previous six months of 21,300 continues to suggest that the economy may finally be turning the corner.
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% D( ^9 _& |) f" o“All in all, despite the relatively modest drop in employment for November, (the Canadian) labour market still appears to be on better footing heading into the end of the year,” said Nick Exarhos with CIBC World Markets.) l9 o9 |& F8 h  J) q1 ]
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Brian DePratto, economist with TD Economics, said the November jobs report saw the Canadian economy giving back some of the past months’ gains.
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5 r8 w, N7 }. \2 d“It should be cautioned though, that one month doesn’t make a trend. On a six-month moving average basis, employment gains have seen a marked pick-up since May, and are trending at 21,300 in November,” he said.! m$ x( R; H4 `/ S
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“Moreover, the past few months have seen significant gains in full-time employment. Looking ahead, we expect to see continued modest trend employment growth. The Canadian dollar is expected to remain relatively low, and ongoing improvement in the U.S. economy, which saw significant employment gains in November, will help support demand in the near-term. These factors will be tempered by the impact of low oil prices, which are expected to result in some drag on employment, particularly in the extractive industries.”
鲜花(137) 鸡蛋(4)
发表于 2014-12-6 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
降价是必然的,问题是,降价你还买吗?加拿大的房价比美国同比地区搞出一倍,是时候了。另外,房价涨了10年,跌个30%40%也正常。美国危机前,房价虚高也比不过加拿大高,危机来的时候有的地方跌70%。只有一少部分没跌多少。想想底特律,就明白edmonton了。唯一区别是,没有以抢劫为生的那些人在edmonton,天太冷,抢劫犯都不愿意来
鲜花(77) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2014-12-6 21:09 | 显示全部楼层
It can be very resilient, people would have to hold on their house unless they have to give up and run into default.  When they lose their house, they lose everything. . . It takes time.  If people are running into default, they default first on credit cards and other unsecured debts... Foreclosure will be the last...
鲜花(26) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2014-12-9 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
应该会降。但是会滞后。
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