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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
3 S" j% n4 \5 t3 ?9 W2 Y
2 G* T n" b6 ~+ [) ?- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
& y$ r- j, E- I Pexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third$ h5 B7 P3 u; @/ ~+ N' M
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic( Y- q H/ v* A$ L- I
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit$ V( _- ~& V3 E; C" V: V
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and- g# U' f2 B0 D. J
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,0 L- f* d& I( ?+ O, I
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
2 m+ P3 s C8 {) ~LePage Real Estate Services.9 y0 s3 g/ ^4 |; u' y
% E; L% S5 h2 w! Q
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters/ F, L0 l# `* d
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
2 g6 D" u/ R1 n- a" Oconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
( i4 q! n0 \, \+ E! h) I5 Gsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the# g6 R4 l4 z, U! C+ ?# g) R
residential real estate sector.7 Q+ x! }% [% Q/ N2 H. c( L8 R
8 t' r8 m2 y5 Y* {( T$ r! ~0 q% @ Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation" ~+ p2 Z m; w+ p; t
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%): [3 l! ?8 P0 T
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562& ~1 Z* R$ ~) M3 f2 }( V& ?
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
% D, `, o" C7 C- S(+13.2%).
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"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth% R2 v, l9 Y! S0 n
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the& g& O S( p: n8 {; H) g8 n4 h
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are1 N& u8 ]' z4 @5 V6 V2 G- ~" I
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
# b' n6 A/ P9 d5 w- x" [* T: tpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
& ~+ @4 I; N# q- F" b* O"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We9 I$ {# n8 Y0 A
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy9 {9 I1 j( }9 }2 S
balanced market."
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
4 h j, L Z* _4 T2 v0 cconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
5 e2 [6 Q4 g- @9 v+ xto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
& s* d4 V2 l, z& _5 P6 ^ ]2 Bthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
- H; ^! d" Z' ^! venergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
9 n6 s" v8 ?+ z/ R; c5 Mmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
7 q8 n8 [* s3 [, m0 S" ~breaking price appreciations.3 \! N' V8 K/ P0 D4 e
- |# J3 x: G& M6 Y$ w Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding" d( l( a. i i* D4 A, s5 W& S7 _5 H) _
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the! \2 v2 z6 h% I4 o5 s7 M
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid5 t8 ~' H' s2 x- N" i& P! i' w Z7 c/ @8 b$ @
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
9 `* _- Z+ r7 w1 u! Wconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
; F. E9 g, ?! q) H, ?9 ]9 kslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.* h! [% W- `6 f1 G/ ^6 i5 ?
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers# x2 s# b( Q+ h3 v& ^+ }- `0 ]1 ?! M
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
+ U6 ^ ~! G# x* q: X( P7 eprice appreciation when compared with 2005.# `( p1 l" D, G5 m/ F
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
$ F% v3 P% _, t- l6 Wmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
( M( d, {2 d) x& `financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada$ V1 _2 j% T0 g
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
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s' Z% J- Q, C) m% s8 @' a1 P Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
1 M1 \$ X; C3 D5 a% b4 ^/ p% }* Q/ lAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's2 e0 L T& B+ o+ G( q; _
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
* f3 s# R( B# E: Mrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general0 g8 O( S L9 r5 [9 \% p6 R
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the8 h3 s2 V2 z* _# T! X% y
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
" D. Z8 @! B% a9 h7 J1 naggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
5 J& E& o% S1 lmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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! m! m/ Z) v: \5 x. X x <<
6 d& k, c/ Y) R: [) J5 w) | REGIONAL SUMMARIES7 }7 h* a0 o* ]
>>
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
8 r( V8 F; C0 e6 ?* z# f% `& IHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
5 i1 O9 t4 V* k- a8 Cof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
8 ~1 u, G0 E/ e7 ?9 G' Olooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of* _1 H7 V6 p& r6 \2 O$ S
renovations.
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1 Y% ]$ U: \) _ L, ^ The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
8 J$ y8 ?$ j7 l& P" N9 xincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation4 A: J2 _% ^4 c4 D) t/ M7 M
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
3 R3 L, y2 z& p) E, [September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.5 p! d8 C! n5 O
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The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer" F* d& D0 ?/ h0 S
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the* D& C5 P) a7 G: q
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
: j$ X* w2 r- G- i# ~600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores5 V0 {+ z' m. y# N" p
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
" [, x! c" {, {$ A# K; s6 L: Vand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.& R9 x4 @3 G6 ?' m+ k2 Z
$ m/ u& T: w0 P- ]9 u
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced0 A6 U$ U7 H1 D; ]9 y ~& l# Q
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
% o5 |. X% o# O' Chomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
9 T! H, L) q' X5 E: M3 [was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
4 }5 V0 D4 H5 s8 ~4 }2 v2 @dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing" n5 [) Y- ~4 S$ A5 o; f8 C
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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5 x8 n+ x0 c, X; o# { Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly, d& q' c# B$ p& m4 R; A% e
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
' n* ^) O! ~0 D9 p5 y1 A" Bpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,; V$ z1 F8 C1 d ?4 ?4 q8 q
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
+ U0 v( h3 s% L( wfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
% R: j5 p) @1 T' q' n7 yprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory; r7 E! f. z& F/ y% H
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
- M( _7 z0 B, z* Sfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
/ [5 Z4 o- ~/ L5 n0 b" awhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the+ j$ |% p0 `2 X
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
2 Y4 o8 q* w6 J# s5 amaking a purchase.' { _ R0 D$ v5 a! w. V- N8 i
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing6 u" H; u. E4 d2 L
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong2 \% E4 U$ N. J& d* F/ c
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city, G# k) J0 B! [$ Z' u4 g
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting" G' {9 q+ c: w0 r9 H: |
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
$ O/ b& G0 ?8 Tamenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
5 j1 M! ]) Z0 K# W1 |' Q( othroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand5 n6 e' n- s5 D! |$ W# c+ m% m# `
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
3 h% G2 j8 r3 _5 x- C8 Q% [. [: x( S/ gcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been7 W! ~" r0 O0 e" k4 K
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
. L; V/ }' J% ` f2 H/ c" jresidence, rather than for investment.
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The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
' r) ~& C) c+ C% c. yhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted3 x& `6 ]8 C$ }: @, r% V8 B9 e
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
# n; l" C; z/ ~1 z) Bconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
! o0 K, T- t2 M' t/ x. U' t( Hrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter b* q. ? {. C0 _" r" l$ H: s
the market.
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2 o* z) F8 J: n5 {% Y2 v In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through5 W1 D$ P9 e) j
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In. q1 U; ?+ ]# C; E% S3 U
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
3 b- c* J6 T$ v0 M( x, Ymonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
* I7 y0 y% l) ^* p. }- k9 A7 zto the shortage of available inventory.* F/ _2 m( A, h; {
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
4 a7 c" T, d3 g% Q; \$ wmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
- k+ F* D4 g* _) X5 I! fvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
1 r2 g7 e8 K+ V$ M# s1 ostruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases3 [+ ]( R) S& V0 K% b- W" S
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
6 J7 P6 `' F \5 P& V; k. p# Eunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that4 l- f; a) X* K* y2 V
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring" D. t9 p( x; F$ l, f) ]
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer( I& v7 |# y! `( `& O0 S% S @
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
8 k" E9 C! E/ x8 v1 ]3 Ebuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.& @& f4 V9 U8 W, ^0 e* x
" b. w$ O& R. z D# o
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
2 i8 o8 M( d2 Z+ j3 m4 I% H3 Was activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
6 b8 l' L; h% ^1 S' i: Dremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
( n2 j. n3 E0 x: Gmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
3 @. z# v+ C2 m: l( D4 Uincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve2 V: K7 [ T7 N" R
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly2 x- m% ]3 Q* j9 O& R
towards the end of 2006. b5 Z: W! C2 e7 C9 J8 v* P# _
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
* Z5 x+ Z& ^% L$ @: E$ M% G: Ginventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable+ L1 O" z6 Y3 }: q( p+ P3 g' R
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
# o/ D2 N" Q/ g- D- pgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to: f0 J; `# Y \% Q& @
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
( R8 h- C) h+ Z. Cpressure on tight inventory levels.6 R( o- o/ k4 z) B/ N* _: G. p( `
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
0 m; @; L7 e! }fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 K0 j( Q2 l8 W5 v) R1 W2 ?( P/ [* r+ `1 b
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;) N+ C$ a/ x6 \" l7 o( g
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching/ L5 H }9 v* J5 Y$ v
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
3 {8 Z' v$ P% Q+ u% p( ^) a* |2 i
<<
$ O W! K- |, J) v0 p5 k Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
, Z N9 _9 I) ?
% F- b: m* N' g) t- { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ ]2 W) Q% z! P& f: [6 m- o. h7 @) ? Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey+ z& D1 w% K" `5 s6 y5 F9 V9 o4 I6 i
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* o5 \6 e7 [ A4 q. R" ^* S
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q35 ~1 y5 {7 D' x3 E/ \( L& d
Market Average Average % Change Average Average) f9 `0 \; w: T( _7 q& c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* ~0 ~# J+ m& r( h% A; U6 d Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
9 y5 n; f% @9 Q# n1 S% I. M -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 r) a4 n5 `1 }& ^8 `
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000% E! N7 z+ a& Q4 T8 b& I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* U" k7 ?( k9 L: p# a g } Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
% U& [/ u% R Y E -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ X# _: g; i( e/ h+ g# T
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
! n3 D6 X" J1 Y# E% `3 M3 U5 S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& s7 `8 ~! s7 m St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333; u$ p6 N. \: q- F; o' i/ U3 u* T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- [, E* Z6 t+ [) A b5 S. c Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
' O+ ?6 W+ ?: `% X -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 r5 b9 \5 L( S! Z& `. }" N
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
# b6 ^; q' k$ i0 f" E# ?* @* ^6 Y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( M; ?" y. G% H* d' G% D Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250; o* W1 L! z: b/ Q' h, E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# `% q A# n- H% T0 y5 b
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766 U# L* J2 J7 v( i+ _1 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------, E& h+ M6 b) _! [ r! ~+ ?
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707# E/ X8 d D0 Z3 o) i. O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 v, P$ |3 j j# m% P M Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
6 t: ~, c/ D: s2 N! [& y -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 a5 L1 U2 d; U$ y7 k- @
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3891 }$ [ l; h$ ~! o1 [. k. `/ a. P
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 a0 I1 `, E8 }( m. K9 a3 X Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714% X, e' n5 |- c' f1 l
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 `- c8 ^" d7 z- T Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500! r7 m h- m8 B) }5 S4 D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
% E- G- F8 y: p* j Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
& d/ ~& q5 s, y( o2 X4 ~. X -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; g8 \1 h% D+ @ National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
# b9 H8 }* P! @; G, R -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ z; J; G A% {7 T& S; @( o8 }/ N
) J7 D+ ^& R! R+ b6 l1 M( Y -------------------------------------------------------------; ~! j* R. P3 Y2 R
Standard Condominium
. d9 H, H; v, n: {) e* |5 v* ] -------------------------------------------------------------& j& j1 M. }/ y; r
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo: I$ _- b, D8 \1 J
Market % Change Average Average % Change
, [0 x7 b: Z/ v. _/ G1 d1 O -------------------------------------------------------------& g6 _' Q+ y* F4 { l
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%" b% T: G* t3 }& j H& l) M7 g
-------------------------------------------------------------7 l' Z6 X$ h( H5 A7 n( ^
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
2 R) I7 ?% Q7 Z+ p6 _ -------------------------------------------------------------
% h% T _; ` U! y Y% o& Q ^& w Moncton 4.9% - - N/A+ M8 u' K) x7 w J9 v( a- o
-------------------------------------------------------------. @9 \& l! p4 _* T3 U$ ~
Saint John N/A - - N/A
+ j; Z! O8 ^6 V( q -------------------------------------------------------------8 G1 v' [" ^0 n
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
$ L$ M$ @1 V9 c; P" t$ s+ ? -------------------------------------------------------------% g4 x3 z* t F4 X2 U
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
4 W0 j, n2 o% }' C1 A2 Q -------------------------------------------------------------; ^- G; ?+ I3 L' x" f/ B
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
/ r! p7 ?9 W* d2 |! q6 b -------------------------------------------------------------
. b2 Z3 z. h2 Z Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%6 W; D5 h4 Q* ^3 y
-------------------------------------------------------------
- }; e! c h/ e* C3 U Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
, X: J0 C4 b: G7 e, K -------------------------------------------------------------
2 W6 x1 ?) J3 s' t7 x% r Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%* |$ Q8 U( S4 a7 {0 {+ j' Y+ j) ]7 e3 h
-------------------------------------------------------------
. k9 h, }0 P; y Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
$ F. I& o0 f [9 g! e5 | -------------------------------------------------------------
9 F# j! a( I. L9 r) r8 L: U Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
' n+ F8 {2 }6 o9 V6 R -------------------------------------------------------------4 W1 f- N% }( N) i8 J5 A8 w3 T
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%: C% E, Z: G b
-------------------------------------------------------------2 [; n% @0 h/ r; J
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%' _, B m9 g1 c$ j5 y
-------------------------------------------------------------$ p9 U6 ?/ ^, U+ U' ~, ?
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%$ C0 L3 o K' {& u
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ e% _: h- S: A/ @, T& s National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%. l* G) J, t: j6 [% h
-------------------------------------------------------------
' |4 c6 g; v# W) u7 S7 }0 q >>$ @9 ?6 s) s0 l2 g2 z
O& G1 x% W1 v0 \ Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined5 ~+ @2 u. o+ U2 s5 S( r0 O* H
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint. E- m% `7 T; G9 G9 e
John and Victoria.! q4 Y8 [9 T! ^6 m4 `
1 j3 A, G6 {. \) r The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
& F! \' b3 L5 q: |- n5 t3 ccomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
0 B/ }. v) x1 h& g: rhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release9 Q" _! S' M& V1 g% v i l$ l
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
2 O# d! o7 A8 Qtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities4 j. V6 e6 [) t+ X# {0 ?
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
3 o$ W |3 r1 s4 M+ aavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current+ O5 L% k, [ {9 ^9 D! k
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
* ^' f/ E% c" F& zversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on. w# q0 r! N' ?
November 15, 2006.
/ \4 c* F/ S) D' X4 E Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
3 g6 V! Y. u+ h1 Ffair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
/ r* Q3 R2 |* w9 L$ @& ?provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is( N$ s) k3 ]+ J7 [9 j
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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