Housing costs eat up larger share of income

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2006-9-20 21:54

Ron Chalmers, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Wednesday, September 20, 2006

EDMONTON - Edmonton homes are less affordable than 10 years ago but are more accessible than those in most major Canadian cities.

The RBC "affordability index" measures the percentage of pre-tax median household income required to pay utilities and service a 25-year mortgage at current rates, with a 25-per-cent down payment, on a single-family bungalow -- based on local incomes and costs.

The lower the better, for buyers.

Edmonton ownership cost only 17 per cent of income in 1997. As incomes rose, so did prices, with affordability worsening to 21 per cent in 2005.

With the recent price spurt, however, our city's affordability index has jumped to 25 per cent. That's just where it was in 1985.

Is this squeezing marginal buyers out of the market?

"Maybe a bit," said Jim Kulak, past president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board. "It will happen more if prices keep going up -- but I think they will stabilize in the near future."

With the recent run-up of prices, "I think they're in for a breather," Kulak said Tuesday. "But I don't expect a downturn."
Edmonton single-family home prices rose 41.9 per cent to an average of $316,480 in the 12 months to the end of August 2006.

During that time, incomes rose about five per cent.

The RBC index may exaggerate the erosion of affordability, suggested Brian Countryman at ATB Financial, because it assumes a 25-year mortgage -- while many buyers now choose 30- or 35-year terms.

"We, and other financial institutions, introduced them especially for first-time buyers," Countryman said Tuesday.

Longer terms create higher interest costs -- unless borrowers accelerate payments when they are able. "We explain that they can reduce the overall cost through prepayment, lump sum payments and dropping the amortization period at renewal," Countryman said.

Gary Burke, Scotiabank's western Canada regional sales manager, said Edmonton home affordability "is being tested," but "we have not had more trouble qualifying clients than in the past."

Scotiabank's 35-year mortgages are "increasingly popular but not a majority choice," he said.

While Edmonton home affordability has worsened, it remains more attractive than that of most Canadian cities. RBC calculates the indexes at 36 per cent in Montreal, 44 per cent in Toronto, 35 per cent in Calgary and 68 per cent in Vancouver.

The Calgary Real Estate Board reported last week that 34 per cent of single-detached homes now on the market have reduced their list prices by an average of $26,000.
"There's a fairly significant portion of the detached-home marketplace that was pricing themselves out of the market," said board president Kevin Clark.

He noted, however, that 25 per cent of sales were at or above list price in August, when single-family homes averaged $412,331 -- up 51 per cent from August 2005.

Despite rising home prices, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that the consumer price index rose only 2.1 per cent in the 12 months through August 2006.

That was down from 2.4 per cent one month earlier, mainly because of cheaper gasoline.

In Alberta, the CPI rose by 4.7 per cent over the year, the greatest gain of all provinces, apparently because of housing costs. "The homeowners' replacement cost index, which captures the worn-out structural portion of housing and is estimated using new housing prices (excluding land), rose by 8.1 per cent between August 2005 and August 2006," StatsCan reported.

In Alberta, that factor rose 43.4 per cent.

"By all counts, Alberta's housing sector stands out clearly from that of the other provinces," StatsCan observed. "The boom in the oil sector, combined with a high employment rate and a high degree of consumers' confidence, translated into a surge in demand for new houses in that province."

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-9-20 21:59

正确，不确认具体数字，但是卡城肯定在降价。

原帖由 十年移民路 于 2006-9-20 21:54 发表
. q3 s' n) t3 LThe Calgary Real Estate Board reported last week that 34 per cent of single-detached homes now on the market have reduced their list prices by an average of $26,000....

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-9-21 08:36

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-9-20 21:59 发表
5 V# I4 X! |8 `正确，不确认具体数字，但是卡城肯定在降价。
) j7 J& ]% d$ N2 l
. H3 p) T% O' K, T9 }( n

He noted, however, that 25 per cent of sales were at or above list price in August, when single-family homes averaged $412,331 -- up 51 per cent from August 2005.

老兄，看数据看完整，这25%又说明了什么呢？

FutureShop · 发表于 2006-9-21 09:49

25% sold above list price ------A U G U S T
34% reduced $26K -------------S E M T E M B E R ?

WST · 发表于 2006-9-21 19:48

原帖由 十年移民路 于 2006-9-20 21:54 发表( C$ Y4 r7 [ P7 O
Ron Chalmers, The Edmonton Journal8 ]. Y' Q7 o% o9 ?; N/ X( T
Published: Wednesday, September 20, 2006
1 i" A" W% V$ X" n4 n: j% i/ `- y) F" Q+ C) K# c/ [( G$ c

. r5 r0 U2 J! y( ^1 ^6 TEDMONTON - Edmonton homes are less affordable than 10 years ago but are more accessible than those in most major C ...

该文对估计爱城房价的涨幅有重要启发：

Edmonton ownership cost only 17 per cent of income in 1997. As incomes rose, so did prices, with affordability worsening to 21 per cent in 2005./ M/ v- F) b2 C$ Y
With the recent price spurt, however, our city's affordability index has jumped to 25 per cent. That's just where it was in 1985.

从1997- 2006，房价至少翻番。其间affordbility index increases about 8%.

While Edmonton home affordability has worsened, it remains more attractive than that of most Canadian cities. RBC calculates the indexes at 36 per cent in Montreal, 44 per cent in Toronto, 35 per cent in Calgary and 68 per cent in Vancouver.

如果爱城 affordbility index 增至 30%（算保守吧），房价是否应再涨：5/8*100%=62.5%.

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-9-21 20:24

哈哈哈哈，总有人在发疯。是不是醉酒就不知道了。

十年移民路_ · 发表于 2006-9-21 21:26

原帖由 WST 于 2006-9-21 19:48 发表
* P; U, u* T7 |7 Y9 y( G9 y8 l
5 O8 J# U c6 [& H& K
该文对估计爱城房价的涨幅有重要启发：
4 M" _; m* n2 u$ [/ r! @# h; _; }
Edmonton ownership cost only 17 per cent of income in 1997. As incomes rose, so did prices, with affordability worsening to 21 per cent in 2005." E( b1 V S' e0 Z8 k
With th ...

这也是我看爱城的房价的主要出发点。这是大势，长远看不会有大风险。

Z · 发表于 2006-9-21 21:30

原帖由 WST 于 2006-9-21 19:48 发表
6 F; D5 M4 V" w7 T
, h9 P s: L- |. l+ G h YWhile Edmonton home affordability has worsened, it remains more attractive than that of most Canadian cities. RBC calculates the indexes at 36 per cent in Montreal, 44 per cent in Toronto, 35 per cent in Calgary and 68 per cent in Vancouver.# ?7 J9 P# O- b4 H9 N
4 D N. J9 y% P+ H' b# W( M
如果爱城 affordbility index 增至 30%（算保守吧），房价是否应再涨：5/8*100%=62.5%.

如果你说房价会越来越高，我理解。
如果你认为这个index会越来越高，请给个解释。

WST · 发表于 2006-9-23 10:52

原帖由 Z 于 2006-9-21 21:30 发表
5 A- Q: Q: E0 W% M: }+ n* h( c
4 n! h: X( J8 k @4 P$ w5 f% q7 ~: \# f5 f7 X+ z
如果你说房价会越来越高，我理解。
0 Q' [ t' T( F5 e* b' A7 e/ J如果你认为这个index会越来越高，请给个解释。

1.可以说爱城房价近年来的攀升只是补偿多年来的停滞，以affordability index 来评估，爱城房价仍是under value.
2.目前爱城的房价攀升未能有有效的制约，很可能自由上升到大多数人买不起为止。以指数30% 来沽算，是一个保守值。

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2006-9-23 11:21

原帖由 WST 于 2006-9-23 10:52 发表9 m8 q* i: k2 b" @# w) [( A2 ^; d

* v d( E' [8 r- g; S7 R: W8 r4 J$ A% v4 w. G3 V5 l
1.可以说爱城房价近年来的攀升只是补偿多年来的停滞，以affordability index 来评估，爱城房价仍是under value.
: s- U5 T% _( }* a2.目前爱城的房价攀升未能有有效的制约，很可能自由上升到大多数人买不起为止。以指数30% 来 ...

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