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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ' o+ o4 J2 w$ }1 M- P/ P: w
4 _) g+ g5 j7 d, n4 P5 HDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
$ i" M+ c# m! n% t- {& n1 l9 b7 t* E TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 G k. l+ H4 ~: }1 W
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
) S+ N& m9 }: f' z& ras the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 F6 S* I- `" D. {, H1 L# @Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 {/ C' K& ]" G" U- j2 g6 |and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
/ A% c- m/ M2 z1 P) X# v5 _" Wupbeat.
% t# J0 _" Z2 U T5 u9 N; _ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
6 d6 o% f+ N: n; Sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
2 X5 D( L9 l, {2 Cinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real* |+ i3 W1 F# Q5 j3 r7 e
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
. k3 G3 Q# D7 X3 F& _representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
' b* l9 f2 e# b8 \# [Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
: _5 P- j4 r- v/ [& uincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
9 }) ~ D1 P0 E! V" E: `3 s. r According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian& Y. \, @1 @" m+ x A
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
+ V9 R6 R# p+ n6 g) _3 T# aenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
) g0 w9 Y; A: Dbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
# \( w2 f: ~2 @% {+ v! ?highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.": Y( ]% S3 B/ A- z u6 Y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the) T) V S$ h0 w% ]% R% E; J
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game+ O& f/ B2 i+ a# j" @; K% f+ L
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey- V8 S7 [- o+ s: J) g
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ P0 _7 a: U" r4 @correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
6 A+ j3 K( v$ b4 tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
, c: p q# R9 Q The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 L6 T3 o6 i& p4 wrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 G& u4 c4 T, l: I8 B H' a+ @2 V% X% Ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land% s4 X3 T" ]$ I; {
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country, p$ X+ p* ?" R
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating w+ ]4 L: s) v I" ^' D1 V' `
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
0 y6 a% h9 i. j, o' l/ \! Gresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to, R1 `4 D1 @- I
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 Z3 o! C+ `! A; [
single-family housing looks overpriced.
1 t {% w! \& c8 Q I$ r Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 B& p- n' `% t7 i7 t) k
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
/ _$ e6 u( T- T7 f/ {" Pmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push! s7 H. y% T2 |
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 @7 k# ~% _5 e$ \) M
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
; [3 Q- P$ z4 X. e' land most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
( l6 w2 o- {) O: d+ o# D& W: napartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
, K) E- r# f2 \5 r: A3 }8 cwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing5 u; e- D% x% [$ z" C+ g
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
' m, W9 Y9 k& ^: Gthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
" ?. H' J8 R# U. Din other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.+ L4 u/ p! w2 `# M
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Canadian Markets to Watch
6 T8 J" s& f6 B( i5 ^2 _ o/ O3 g
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 ?, { ]& |! E4 E5 _
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
4 p6 W* \# t+ v) cneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; g2 }3 y7 N. J/ h' _7 P; c+ @' F
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in0 n, W7 a0 Z1 r) F+ [2 b# ?
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical0 M- Y, n0 k. i8 @
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
- t2 c' D1 l2 r, O! Zwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment2 ~) Y2 W6 v- h! V
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain3 {. P. H" n5 b2 | A
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.7 u5 ?4 p0 Q# G: \1 d- `& p
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
! ~3 S2 i+ B$ Pratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
6 W9 t- @' ~' T) y3 n6 g) V2 J4 F% N* i' r$ u, W
Calgary/Edmonton
; U; G# L: q# V" u; y) H; _
" A; `. i; c) t. q2 b5 z L3 w Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
: D. j: ^5 v/ n, [; v4 d' vboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a, ?6 ?* G, C- J. v
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,% O/ q8 r. M! ?4 c& I
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 ?9 z3 W+ a/ B$ j
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
7 x/ ?0 P3 T1 M9 M) s5 mHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
$ P. \; j) q3 T$ W$ LCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays5 X T0 }0 I5 t6 Z9 j" p+ l1 P
strong, this market will continue to do well.
" D, G# Q9 [) }6 a' w. m: G4 u: n! U* o. H
Vancouver
) Z& a- U; l- e7 B* Y0 }- G, r$ _9 @
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is$ f( o: \0 R7 w) \4 L$ `
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous1 k3 H8 u2 G6 y: K6 {9 q- {+ R0 w
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
3 S9 r/ N% J: X; ?9 _market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" ? s) L: {# X& {& G, zgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy; f3 ]7 F3 X0 _+ V
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
4 U8 N: t0 E% c6 I" u0 v. E: ~for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
. X% G7 n+ Q' C H. Z' Wfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- q' w/ I! O* q% ogood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
6 A$ ^. M+ u7 ^) a7 q# C) U8 f- }% a- J: w" M5 ~
Toronto' X) I( C; X1 U1 K+ S4 x; Z. g$ ]7 E
) a' O0 H( `1 h# k) m Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
) @. x% ]* H/ F# [# m9 u# L R4 Z$ Dmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is! D/ q) l4 `) M/ {! n
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing8 M+ P( O6 A# K, E# k
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.' }3 _& a- g2 [1 Z; j. f' e
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
9 O$ ^6 j8 c8 w( o" ^+ Ufeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 H# J7 e/ O) Y) l# u( D6 C
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.% o" V" A- ]3 X) U8 }
+ {3 c2 A7 g9 V* Y# q& m
Montreal+ N% Y: n1 h4 f* M
+ m; _- v: V: C& a3 x Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, e. u0 d4 T) Y7 i* O, zgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up9 R0 U6 u. ^/ o0 U( r$ P% `
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in8 K c, \0 ?- e6 x! J0 @, i
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate$ J2 G1 {6 S8 l- M/ k& N
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ ~7 |2 N/ |* t# k
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
6 ^5 t+ |2 |3 P( ]4 F2 f& h
7 \7 `' K) n# Y. |) y5 Z' M The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 j# ?' G1 ~+ F7 u( Sinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy0 N; j5 @4 q3 \3 f& }& w
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
, O$ Z/ F7 A3 h' d/ _near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 S: K( h3 \+ r6 T; ^) _3 Joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' k- v- G2 p+ F7 N
prices."2 g# E m! Z- z( c( w4 b
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at* \% O% N0 n$ {
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.9 U, B5 u. H; |. l! K, P
$ P" F* q7 b. Y0 o" p( u About PricewaterhouseCoopers7 d5 E5 w3 S: q9 C( V5 |+ h/ \* Q
$ x( F+ R+ Y3 q4 r
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, i4 k1 m& c4 i* m" }- v9 A0 J
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
. ^* K! j) f7 D# H: g& Z7 ]0 rclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries0 e I" j5 D! z- z% R# s+ M6 I) t. @: a
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
' `1 W) z4 o d' Jfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 D: n9 l' k$ p" N* ]$ f7 e; nexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its n4 ^. I7 M/ O" [
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
6 N$ `* m& ?* D. n7 Z% a% O5 l6 acountry.
3 V& \4 c, N+ H "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario; k6 ~; T8 `; m5 B1 U8 F
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
2 v0 P$ _- P, \- UPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 w, s6 a) p- Peach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
, n& o9 f8 q1 c: j7 K( ^1 p/ P. B' g' y4 g( D) H
About the Urban Land Institute: e$ @5 `' X8 e- @* O; r, g
p7 R8 a% t0 {6 F1 Z8 W The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
6 Z* {* _. m: W# {research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( d/ |* u' A2 X: h
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
6 ~ h' p0 }' Z5 O4 ?thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more0 J/ |* |/ y3 z: w* R
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
0 A' x% ?: T+ h, B# ddisciplines.
$ Z& ?; p" ~9 f; r- m t2 q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
3 x+ T% w) g2 @& U5 HWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
9 l8 C9 z( g5 H& P- H1 |$ _% UCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 a9 c5 x J- k0 m! Xnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be% E& s2 t$ v% g7 a2 X/ H l% J
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! t u- P7 q5 Z2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
, T9 U" x% n l! C: W% i9 O! X3 MHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
, K4 \2 n( w6 J5 \! ~- A' \. Q) qPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
) }" F: u) s4 Q& zcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on( C5 x" m7 X$ y3 X
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.0 X4 M; J, U# M) }0 q/ `( ]
# j; @! q. e+ s$ h
& a, X' W* }# A2 s% w0 F4 c) x/ e/ A
`+ i. T5 [4 g/ dFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,: B& g, l; P% t9 s
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
! h8 e: @! Q% k" h, b" ?+ Xhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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