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Attention Real Estate Reporters: # ]1 x* z% t7 ?% P- ~
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
s) ]/ O, v C9 N TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US4 B* q/ D3 `+ H* d8 I
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
5 m- W- b, d( q( q- f! }as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
: S( Y2 @* N. C+ w: }. F# dTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 z( m6 u1 z$ c9 A- D
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
6 l c& g F( [) R4 Bupbeat. J' e8 O& Y5 h& h1 l1 g2 c2 J
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 S. N! P- P7 ]
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
: } c4 o; s3 V1 [5 A( N: w Tinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 {, K- S3 t) y: X
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! w" ]# Y8 W" {0 j+ L2 n+ irepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.. \. i ?9 `4 f
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world3 _$ J2 Q3 \3 `1 p( f; v1 R! |; J1 @
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
) y6 p* W6 e3 D) p0 F, m% F- U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 T! K0 v) {) _. W
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment3 s- X8 ^( t) u0 r2 P" p
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to% _3 e) m6 \4 i( @- `& e
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record# n- y& q3 l0 l% h0 I. Z; n( f3 r
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
, J/ l8 p( J9 Q, W( N According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
# i" I7 A7 C8 y# e2 c9 R& Iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game8 Q' U( z: {# f+ j
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
* m4 H- q2 P5 g7 J, r# fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; G: h, H$ m, f! Dcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be: B6 V; K$ X( v3 t, d4 O
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.4 b5 l: s, u5 H% Y/ a: t
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
0 B R% j+ b2 Q3 K& ?respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 s: y p/ s: Z/ F6 e- C
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
' p8 i5 V0 |% m- P( cdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country8 x( D. p: f% R; e7 z* Q' ~3 d1 W
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
" U* L$ f* u7 Y, ?- vdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The2 k0 r" Y0 M! J" E+ A( ~
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to0 |$ b, [$ D) p# q# V' H& V: v
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 F1 a5 G6 L# j8 ]4 ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.
/ B2 ]5 P! P! o2 u; g6 O# U% D Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with' b6 W7 R( c* m: m! O' u/ `9 g
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian |; A( R" m% q& [' K; @( P/ L
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push! @$ P! o/ N `0 _: @
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting% e+ ?: a8 X1 p+ J, m4 X s7 i5 Y& a
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
+ b/ C5 M3 x' [3 N2 }and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% p: s5 K0 V# ^& D% g! y8 L1 z5 q" t+ Dapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ r; h! r7 B6 U- X7 W6 A3 |western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing& K' @' h$ G0 f. [
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into' z: k! s0 {3 N3 n( a% V: F4 }
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& ~- u8 r1 l; X* x3 p' [' D+ \in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) f" Q3 J8 }* C) F* n8 c8 Q
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, p8 n0 R) m1 a# A! b* ~; g" v3 Mcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
9 p( _ K( P A3 L& pneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back( P9 Y( G C) L. B* t% F" T; Z2 `9 E
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 V8 C! `* \- L& ~7 p4 G Qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical. `# C( I* H$ H3 K
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' l1 m; i6 V H+ v
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
j. j' W% s7 J7 y% ~- K2 Jprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain6 `4 J, X9 N, v; K) q) V, Q5 t
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
) z4 ~ [5 Q8 j" UToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high9 g8 Z7 D) D9 X
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.! m/ r% ?. t( N) ], k
1 E6 H0 z4 u' U Calgary/Edmonton3 K; L3 V+ a/ g2 X! G) s/ t
& Y% k4 X; H/ Y4 Z; }6 S4 w7 { Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
( P' @8 |) N6 ?* \2 H4 Q! T: {6 ^; Xboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a; M( `$ }% Z, B
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# f$ K; A- G M$ P1 s
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.( ^7 @$ p9 C" m( v
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
: z2 C% [2 |# _Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
9 Z ?! F6 |5 c) F# g' Y: SCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
: I Q6 b- D3 b" s2 R' f" O) Ystrong, this market will continue to do well.0 Y" J0 W; O) m! \3 D
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Vancouver; P" ?3 w2 a0 p3 W
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 @% e) F2 a3 h2 @
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous+ k6 N$ t, h; m/ g
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
8 o( M9 B" R. P& C, Lmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' J3 l" l4 @3 i! Z) s5 G( l( Cgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy2 {' C* Y, s) m) C
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%' t0 \+ b/ q. U; v! z
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%* \- Q! }5 C1 r# n1 P
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; R9 _, D$ ]2 i* |* k1 }good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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6 g8 Z5 H H' y% ]6 X) O3 R Toronto* n' j3 I: m, s6 j T' a' ~7 h
- L3 T! ^0 h) b3 ]6 F$ L ? Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
X H& Y! Q+ D/ f8 Jmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
' S, N" @3 e* a# [relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing: ^& I" S" h# g5 r0 s& r( A( h
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
7 M& _7 ?: X- e1 g' }Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
- t; ~4 _: s# {feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
# t3 Z3 H7 e! s4 e) ]0 sApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.1 z8 v# R7 f/ K# G& d3 A0 @
# O( R: I3 v# Z; `3 B
Montreal
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$ K) q6 A; a O. C' ]' R Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
3 c- q; W3 G6 L& Lgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
/ {6 I4 m+ `7 _! S4 Pshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 e% G2 X+ S' T7 K6 d- \Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% I8 ]! Z6 B/ _" Y& }
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
% Q% }' [$ n1 [higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years" X% a* A6 N3 d t4 a$ s* @0 C
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy6 V9 P9 h! S& ^. C/ w* B7 b, R
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos- s& }* F7 i9 \ t* @5 W
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
0 G+ T- ~3 Q* A$ Boverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
: _& e0 I8 P" U, O$ b3 {& Eprices.": R7 J1 e4 o" e9 V* y7 y
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
& Q' a4 u6 o6 r6 Rwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
" y, `5 F" Z+ R8 e' M
K) l: n( p# k; S PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,* ~+ M" j% ]9 [9 i1 h2 M7 O
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
! F4 a+ m/ a; A8 J3 z5 l7 c9 lclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
# H/ S3 i+ K- d+ S5 ^! E/ Wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop2 X- {( v# C/ P4 e" X* n
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 m7 c+ @1 r9 Qexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
0 W( G' |: G' Y$ ~# z5 V" I8 qrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the( T5 J( W( n; m
country.; U2 c" U. B, d
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario" s( u4 t8 M' n) `5 k: s+ A
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
F3 o7 C. y. {0 UPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
6 g; l6 \/ g/ \) }1 g7 V* [+ Peach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
- k' |& a5 Z& \2 j3 `% K* R5 N$ S" c$ Z" z A8 d: g1 b
About the Urban Land Institute
. B* G) s9 b) b: A0 D1 A0 M5 U4 C. G8 F/ F! W: A" X
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
7 O: S7 w! d9 X7 G" a A2 Vresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! c, P9 M/ N1 C: Vleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& o2 ?: o* P" c! A; `& mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 Q6 F5 b6 e1 |9 S5 m$ n0 xthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development; Y7 n4 |, q, C- _
disciplines.
7 G( X2 c$ L( e& n$ \' E6 @2 o+ x The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.4 z" m7 a9 D% w9 T0 [
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
3 X2 o4 @" A# e8 {$ SCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; N, w3 d7 t# hnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
: X0 P( E4 w5 o" d7 k) o& Thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,' m4 Q" V9 s+ V7 a9 W/ T7 Y% b
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake2 y$ D; t. M* c& b' {
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
- f2 q3 _) ~) I6 k- TPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please( u( i$ K" A/ C& E9 C
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on* v/ c" P. n6 H, h% q- ?' Z/ A
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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$ L2 g1 _: i3 ^3 `! j
- ^, q7 z$ \8 x' M; c% h* lFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,/ ]5 T0 `, B3 }* ?, o0 I8 C7 E
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" y3 f% c% c( j9 K* J! H2 `" J
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html) P# A8 m1 d3 H
! a3 O3 r# Y1 ]- p[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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