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Attention Real Estate Reporters: " b( k9 C j2 ~4 P0 G
2 j6 A9 ^4 p" Y# M9 tDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat $ ?3 ^# R. s& l/ v8 E
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! r9 y$ M7 k/ x0 Y1 V4 ]
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, U) s0 R9 `" \) B0 ^5 \- i
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 U# _7 S& d* p, [Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 `6 [' n% Y1 S; g
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. m& c$ L5 I/ U
upbeat.
8 e- Q; m8 E/ S5 _! t& w, G3 |6 v# J Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
, _ [8 t0 J2 n& _5 R" ^annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects0 C- i0 y' U( k8 g
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
1 [2 V5 _5 K: M6 W% Z6 S* e$ Cestate experts, including investors, developers, property company8 H, S2 T) a4 k& h2 Q
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US./ b, S' A* D( Y
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 q3 n8 J x$ _9 ^4 {
including Asia Pacific and Europe.* J3 ^8 R% f) B% {
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
; m/ e$ y' C! @) M! y/ B" K% O$ HReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment5 a+ O# Q5 U4 C) l1 G7 a
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to e5 C, O4 F! f& `) g5 Y: `
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record9 O( i& ?4 q! A0 p/ S/ P
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."5 J) V4 @5 F7 W* k
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ H6 j5 \4 }* P* V, Z- k" s5 mborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* O. |) G5 \8 T- z9 Xspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
; \5 p; F, N0 M5 J! r/ \' V) {remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US8 w: Z4 l" A, g0 y8 \: I1 X
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
: q8 W; t. V; { uvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* `$ n2 @$ f8 }8 d& Y
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ i7 A, `. O8 f5 Y3 I3 J, j$ x
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by& s( ?; l+ j* J$ c/ O( ]% x' j
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
( `. {) N2 W hdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country/ @. \+ A3 i7 E$ }) z
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating: V% `5 C+ U* U9 a- q o9 n
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
- N1 F3 A5 }6 j: nresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to; G8 m6 k6 P+ G7 q
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
! L( ?$ d6 s/ U6 _4 }- {0 ]single-family housing looks overpriced.1 F1 ~ G* O9 J( c
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ \) O; A P/ g' J
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
$ d: d4 h6 g8 J; ^5 u' Umetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) H$ `. p$ o% k4 L# [$ |6 d3 Y
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
- c& e, D# S6 |new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% @! X3 V& O) Z7 \+ n5 Mand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental' ~' }( z7 z+ [8 S. D: y
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary; }# w- N, u8 \$ K2 B. B3 [
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing; F& h. g& d3 Y2 y# {5 e' A% u9 N
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
) l8 }& C( y, C+ r k: V% L$ lthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
# P6 z/ @, L$ \% [, X3 |in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.+ |" P. |; K5 [/ z0 T/ O8 K9 B6 f
, d$ P& O# a2 I5 s' q! u0 { Canadian Markets to Watch0 w, P$ s# ]- L: _' G8 M
" t3 ]0 c. e, f6 |7 O% M& Z The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central# @9 ^+ J' z9 I6 G. p! [
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour. O; c O$ o2 H, z- i; i
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 \/ _+ K) _, P/ Dinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, P- D7 C; G8 U9 v' q% Z* O" Q
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical- D2 t9 a/ V) _7 A X3 E1 R! e
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
" Z" p' o' t2 U5 nwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment q& i6 T' M0 D1 ]
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain+ z% H' g" q0 v8 `+ |, C& I
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.7 `) G& f# h) N6 |4 i' ?$ S
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
a2 p& ^+ t P; Cratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.# D# h) _" q$ t
0 a1 s, X/ v5 O' Z; ]
Calgary/Edmonton
2 J4 `3 X; g$ E$ C) b- M: P. z3 W3 M( o4 ?% C
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one8 h9 Y; Y* T1 X# W! ?
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
4 C. M3 R& t) ^/ w1 dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# ]8 u7 C: V' N. q9 r* r
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 e2 n1 z6 I9 }+ ]" I1 x* ]. R: c) MFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
+ g: V; J/ W G6 X4 SHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
; D* a# U8 S/ P/ w! u+ WCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
4 x2 e x& R5 k7 ?strong, this market will continue to do well.1 z7 k7 U4 V5 x
2 W# q% n" _) }/ F2 w( M0 Z5 G
Vancouver" p; x- r$ U5 ^' o. j5 J
/ O( i Z: E3 |# l2 u; \+ b
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is6 W+ F7 n) Y) X) D
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous( @$ D* V' t; `) j/ G
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
2 d' q+ e: w8 ~/ ymarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ ^$ L" S+ ~# @1 S' W2 a5 \; G: ]
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
: F6 w- K" K! r1 G7 w- l/ o! Crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
. x/ ~5 ~/ a2 i( ?for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
# w! P( m( W6 Q" ifor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
% I, ?7 ]- l1 y+ Z6 }good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
9 q4 q4 m. {+ P/ }9 P' R" h4 \* z# ^! f) T1 F5 F3 g' G) g
Toronto8 f1 O' z' A2 y; c. d* a' X
* R$ x* E$ D2 X& g4 f0 @; V6 U Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
9 y1 t) n# b( \manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
' \1 \2 E% [4 D, t2 hrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing% ~$ u* f. O7 v- y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. R1 T2 C% ~ i& J0 P9 xThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
- r: v) r% U* U dfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
- S, H% S# o3 r! a8 u$ F. sApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.; ?2 o8 o* H' g1 i
1 N! T# {& O, W0 p, K& v3 S Montreal s- K$ w B- E6 L' x
( |( Q: ~" r) @0 P: T( ?" j Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
8 [- v; ?# n+ \4 b, \growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up, r+ O6 ?2 v+ |% @3 M ?$ R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in N# n/ h; [+ N i( i7 G
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ W; I! ^% V5 s$ _8 x% Y' ksectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
( {. q: U% p3 X5 T1 N+ H! V+ j/ chigher as a "hold" recommendation.
7 ^/ i( ^* }7 h" V% y, O" \+ Z' d1 v. J4 X9 D. W- L
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years: f$ S2 Q7 A# d0 Z: f9 v$ Z0 Q
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
( w3 P3 _' ^" Q- Emarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" n3 I. _1 T( k2 M) }5 enear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest& p* }) _- R8 S" Z) m; B C( x
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
8 z b( L1 }% Vprices."
2 v- ]- w0 I+ i; [( [ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 v) ?- u6 v, j$ ywww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
/ f* O3 e. d% P5 t8 J
- @4 |9 m3 p" } Q& K& B. u6 J About PricewaterhouseCoopers; Y9 ?, m* U+ W. ]
* S9 Y$ y1 H4 y5 l, u5 N PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
; ^" h" _; B7 ]* z9 ?2 Ltax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
! n$ x& M2 m% K8 s% w! \clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries0 V7 c7 u8 R$ M$ W
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ w5 z( o6 R, [, c; P' H, p8 B
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
3 [% `9 K0 Z( X9 w( k( @& x yexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its$ o3 F7 e) C5 P' a5 B6 o7 P" @
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the3 F. ^& d* V7 @
country.# z7 y. A( D/ w3 f/ Y- D5 ^& A
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 O2 U; i% N# f6 P: C' z! \
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the0 D6 r5 _* p. Q3 X k6 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 B/ m6 M, p. D7 eeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
. t. i @/ e- a: Q0 r( z
" O- _% ~( |7 S) ~! n5 m/ W: f About the Urban Land Institute
) E! Q, s. ^2 h' w2 |( j
. R' [6 u7 V; N, C The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
6 g W4 {1 X! _; W2 oresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide8 n9 m# j8 K/ I% i( a- g9 n
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating" d* y& ^2 u; O
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" `+ g0 \# u7 Gthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
- B- b5 {( }4 {: @disciplines.
8 b& q3 U v: s: X: F; m( M" O The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
. n* w: c v- L& B" \) S4 \With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
8 Y: a; \6 K! rCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 ^. R: w5 e Z1 Z$ v2 V" x0 [now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be$ ]3 _9 c* d' O8 |' v
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
2 o1 e/ G" K2 [( w3 g& {6 Z' A2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 _# P# ^5 x, |4 n9 b/ SHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
' E# ?, X. E. P; `President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please1 _, r5 E) L8 B2 R: D
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
* S2 ~" N9 h. Q! I- |! C: z, ] Dthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.+ l @; C- `- ]; D; |
) M; x$ w2 w: Q- p/ ?. g8 g* \2 O
+ U2 N$ c: ^5 F" h0 h; g& U$ I, `" g9 Q6 h- k+ S2 {0 g6 \' c, [: \
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
0 E2 Y. b$ C8 `(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 [$ g8 j3 t$ p% W. q+ ~http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 n( z' q9 O) s6 o# x, J1 E; P" t
& T$ Z( p% [8 d" G& K# D* ?" k6 r[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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