Affordability gap cools housing market

水管工

A substantial erosion in housing affordability over the past few years combined with a surge in new listings has started to bring the Calgary housing market back down to earth, according to a report by TD Bank Financial Group.

And the latest numbers on the Calgary Real Estate Board website support that conclusion.

As of Wednesday, the average sale price of a single-family home in Calgary metro over the past 30 days had dropped by $32,000 to $473,154 from the record high of $505,920 set in July. The median sale price in the past 30 days has dropped by more than $17,000 to $421,250, from the high of $439,000 recorded in June. And active listings continue to rise -- there are currently 5,454 in the single-family market.
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Gary MacLean, with Re/Max Real Estate Central, said sales remain comparable to last year but the market has changed dramatically in recent months.

"It's not like the real estate market is evaporating, but the problem is that there's so much for sale. So it's a supply and demand thing. Supply goes up, something goes the other way," said MacLean.

; g- X, y9 ]1 x6 j( _, L/ P"We're seeing price reductions and corrections pretty well everywhere in every sector.
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  x' m; c% ~! R5 E1 t  b( d"The thing that's never happened in history before is listings increasing in the fall . . . What's happening this year is the sales are going through their natural cycle, falling off in the fall. It's not a crash," he said.

1 ]7 d7 S* N: C  r" J: ~"What's happening this year that's different is that listings are coming on at an incredible rate . . . The market is overcrowded with listings. People have to be so precise on their price."
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In the spring, the Calgary market was experiencing one sale for every listing. At the end of August, that ratio deteriorated considerably to one house selling for every 3.57 on the market, said MacLean. And that, of course, has increased the amount of time it takes to sell a house in Calgary.

# I. o# e; ^% M% JThe TD report said the "main corrective force" at work in Canada's hottest markets -- Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver -- is affordability.

"As it erodes in the wake of large home price growth that has significantly outpaced household income growth, it dampens housing demand for new and existing homes," said the report, adding that sales in Calgary seem to have peaked this year.

# o! f: Y4 ?3 _$ W8 e. k"What's happened to the average resale home price in Calgary since 2005 is nothing short of phenomenal. Year-over-year average resale home price growth has averaged 25 per cent since then. In June 2006, Calgary overtook Toronto as Canada's second-most expensive major metro market behind Vancouver, and has never looked back since."

' I( H7 m$ c' G) ]! lLai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said that with all the listings, people are taking their time to buy.

% M8 B) k" p9 r"There's no sense of urgency. That whole sense of urgency has been bled out of the system by the huge increase in supply," said Louie. "What's happening now is that people are . . . thinking, 'Well, let's take some time to decide because there's lots of stuff out there, so even if that one goes we can choose another house'. That's causing people to re-price their houses," he said.

"Buyers know there's so much out there they don't need to pay full asking price."
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% n: ]: }0 y3 OMike MacLean, with Re/Max Real Estate Central, said the city has "more listings than we've ever had in the history of the real estate board."
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"There's a large percentage of people who have bought properties for investments and are trying to unload them before they drop in price," he said.


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Font: ****"Traditionally sales drop off at this time of the year anyways because the busiest time is the spring. So the sales are dropping off, the listings are increasing, so of course you end up with days on the market increasing as well," he said, adding prices remain high compared to what they were a year ago.
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+ ?: F- Q0 R0 X# `4 Y* p"The people that are serious about selling their homes, they have to say to themselves, 'You know, I'm just going to have to bite the bullet . . . I missed the peak and now I just have to be more realistic.' "

+ S* c8 i4 H) s' K  e- D$ F: s3 i" EThe TD report said there is a cooling in sales growth in the Calgary market. From yearly increases in sales of 19 per cent in 2005 and five per cent last year, this year's gain is expected to come in at two per cent and the report expects sales to pare back by about five per cent next year "as poor affordability puts a dent in demand."

"More listings on tap, along with softer demand, should combine to help Calgary's housing market ease off the pedal gradually rather than slam on the brakes," said the report.
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( w4 ~+ n# M1 q, QAccording to the report, the average resale home price (condos and single-family homes combined) was $346,700 in Calgary in 2006. It is estimated to reach $432,000 this year -- a hike of 24.6 per cent -- and it is forecast to hit $485,000 in 2008 -- another 12.3 per cent increase.
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Calgary Metro MLS

4 @: |6 ?9 K9 Q3 BSingle-Family Homes
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June '07 / July '07/ Aug'07 / Past 30 Days
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Listings (Active) 4,443 4,510 4,821 5,454
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Avg. Sale Price $496,890 $505,920 $485,914 $473,154
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! j, _% z7 H; I$ a+ x& OMed. Sale Price $439,000 $435,000 $430,000 $421,250

yj151

Z

Medium price 比 average price 更有价值。这是普通人的价位，而不受百万千万豪宅销量的影响。

老杨

谁能给翻译一下？