Edmonton Real Estate Stats - What to Expect Next Week

WST

Edmonton Real Estate Stats - What to Expect Next Week
Well, next week the much anticipated press release from the Realtor's Association of Edmonton will come out, and along with it our charts and analysis of the real estate market. For the past few months Sheldon and I have been watching the listing inventory rise, and predicting a price correction. We called for it in June and July and it didn't come (statistically) and then received plenty of angry emails and comments that we were fear mongering.

Sales were down (5 year low), listings were up (record high) and despite this the average price held very strong, which shows the resiliency of the market. However, this can't continue forever - listing inventory can't keep rising, and sales can't keep dropping (just like we said when the market was red hot). The market is certainly cyclical and is currently correcting in Edmonton.

Some media outlets reported a prediction of a 10% price drop in August for Edmonton. In my opinion they misinterpreted the statements the Realtor they interviewed made. He was discussing the advice he gives to clients when they need to reduce their asking price:

7 I  v$ K0 a8 L"There’s no sense reducing any product by 5% because it just doesn’t work. We’re seeing reductions of 10% and more."

7 H0 s6 b# Z* V1 dThat does not mean that prices are going to fall 10% in one month. The Realtor's Association has already reported that 85% of homes sold in August sold under list price, averaging at $12,000 below asking price. $12,000 seems like a good chunk of money, but it's only a few per cent off the average home, so when people call for 10% price reductions in one month we're talking about a serious chunk of change.

; V/ }& j" v) P* HOur predictions for the August stats:
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; X4 F  s! K- AListing inventory over 9,000
1 c+ r( q/ u' \% C, T; r8 F) qSales below July (1812) which would reflect a more seasonal trend.
Average sale price for single family homes will drop, condos/townhomes are a hard call but I don't see the same drop there that we'll see for single family
5 ^" N( H' g! r: W) w, AObviously we'll see the absorption rates climb for most price ranges.  In some areas we're seeing far more inventory then in others for specific types of properties.
; p/ e6 y9 H, s4 y: bThe end of the world has been vastly overstated by a some. If you are thinking of selling, there is stiff  competition out there which means marketing, service and accessibility  are now more important than ever. If you're thinking of buying, there is more to choose from than ever and there are some pretty great deals out there if you know where to look. As a buyer, interest rates are predicted to go up, so get a rate reserved...a 5% price drop can be quickly erased by a .25% increase in interest rates.
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! X1 r( [9 E; w$ A$ MAll in all there is still a pretty rosy future for our lovely province, a correction was certainly needed and welcomed by  most buyers. We still expect things to pick up again in the not too distant future...The rate of inventory coming on the market appears to be peaking but that may be seasonal as well.   
Stay tuned we'll have the stats and our graphs up asap.

老杨

谁能给翻译一下？或者总结一下中心思想？

青萝

试着总结一下：

笔者及其伙伴几个月以来一直关注房产市场的存量，并且预测会有房价的回调。他们曾认为这个回调将于六月或七月发生。但是统计表明房价并没有下降。

笔者认为上市量不断上升，销售比例下降但是房价却坚挺这一现象不会永远保持下去。有些媒体预测８月份爱城房价下降１０％，这可能是他们曲解了房地产业内人士的话。他的原话是建议他的客户：“标价降５％毫无意义，要降就降１０％或以上。”
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这不表明房价在一个月之内就会降１０％。房地产协会的数据显示８月售出的房子中有８５％是低于标价的，平均低于标价１２０００刀，也就是百分之３的样子。
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4 W# C9 t. H$ u! g对８月的预测：
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存量： >９０００套
销售量：<７月 （１８１２套）
% j* V9 y( T  I& K独立房平均价将下降。condo/townhouse较难预测，应该比独立房的态势好。
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6 n. ^2 Y  f3 z$ w所以，卖主们要做好以服务、营销等来赢得激烈竞争的准备。买主们会有更多的选择。
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总的来说，我们美丽的亚省还是有美好的未来的。因为房价回调目前正式多数买主们期望的。我们仍然认为不远的将来房地产市场会回暖。