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! D. h9 I' {( @7 A) k2 W) ] Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com6 N% ^! i4 I. S5 u
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& j& W8 }0 J4 j# eThu, January 11, 2007( X" R, r9 `! f# f& L; |# P
2 L; \ i- Y$ ^. ~Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
) C& |$ V8 B$ H( {7 W) ~4 l4 f, A; VBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN. m2 m8 n7 Y% Z# \4 C+ S
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+ H9 h0 H5 ]7 @- w) \5 [They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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$ V" l8 ?! g0 C0 V; |9 I% TMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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/ ]( }5 p$ y _. jBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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3 n" ~ g/ `' O& }1 _8 }* _Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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. x: T' p1 V' K"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." * l8 ~9 B5 k0 r- A4 y2 q5 H4 M9 f
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 4 p$ r2 R* E$ B' Q* N, i
% z B! X" O' s4 q9 |) o+ ["There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. Z* {: m: `$ Z z' [2 d; y' Y
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % D- _* q; K8 r9 c" c. X
$ m+ ~. P0 f [" x3 D# D"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." : D1 B" N$ Q- m' ]* h
: ?5 \0 U$ d( V$ GStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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. \' A9 v1 u4 ~; B"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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' H& H# u/ }" ~/ n"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 6 k6 _3 x) Q7 R- W: h4 p9 V
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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% U+ c% X/ [ V+ R6 Z U+ {- dHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 0 U' I' Z/ p+ u5 g5 j o% ?
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. $ S0 m2 ~: g0 R/ ~, z+ T2 _
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. # m6 W8 t' H4 e' y
3 G# D) f0 d1 n l( P! NSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 2 ?& E# y+ X. G3 K6 ~; e0 f1 T
1 g7 Q0 O! \: B# H0 b( Y"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! Z5 t# Z3 \% g5 }% A8 U% P$ I- ~1 H0 h
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Let the good times roll. % t- L- a# m v) F4 `
; i) A, _! y1 s- r5 j7 cPrevious story: Bottom Line1 s2 z9 v$ Q% U3 w% p' c' |
Next story: Building permits hit record6 y3 u+ ^' l" o9 _ H' N
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