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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this4 B; ?5 c% a3 C9 m* Y
$ P6 B4 Q, ^4 ]2 }in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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6 C( ~8 d( ?: {9 T( u! d5 uTwo years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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- m" l/ ^3 U! _; \1 J' l- b+ [Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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& N0 ~; S1 ]( f8 u6 W“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”! k+ z F/ G3 i
( K- a9 [4 D+ M1 c5 RThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.0 H$ ]* {! ]& a- o% \* ~
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.3 g9 ^9 |% M: b% d
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”( ^9 I1 Z8 B, ~' S0 b" {6 v
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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1 n' T2 X' D3 R: X0 A+ l) eFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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* {: F: B& D8 iSource: CNBC
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