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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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# e( S& _( A& g+ i1 a6 J有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。" c o$ O% |" L1 F
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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' Z6 y2 c e: k8 E) s. g# D" NOil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.0 Y+ J5 E+ u; j3 v* H. M( l
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”5 [# e2 `" J( u6 h0 I* w
7 I4 }' y! @- `- o# ]5 T: K bCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”/ E* n9 I; T& {. w3 g, }
: M! q: T' y; e; p' eThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.7 A; S( A$ {2 v9 ^
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.9 h2 L4 {5 t5 h& J) I$ B
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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: ~, L) E+ m. p9 Z: Y, A* D“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”. e3 P, h$ z% B5 t% `, |( w4 ~
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
8 H2 w3 l7 v* j( C4 V- GAround.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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Source: CNBC% g6 B! B2 q# I6 H7 ~2 G9 D
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