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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 Q# q) ]- K7 R! ]- S# M2 l) n
. H6 U h5 J* g有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。
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6 h3 N9 V: Q3 e( P t% z9 r9 uMan who called the oil crush now sees this5 y* v) k+ C2 ]- ^3 p
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017$ `4 H/ y% U; k- i
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.; x' `+ M5 ]4 v- T1 Y9 B
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.# l# [7 X, i- f p* ~8 f
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”2 C( s4 \# ~0 H( ^0 m/ k; Q5 ?/ z
1 ]; S) i8 U) d, Y6 K9 C' ACrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel./ `1 c& ]; c% J4 I- w9 c
) p% K) s3 H4 Q/ C4 f! \Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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# C% x% I; e& {, TWhen it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”1 g! z& f0 ?% E+ k, \
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”& s; Y% S3 V' S0 Q# W; Z+ F
- e. a3 W& L. h. JLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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, L; ` _' B. b3 u% g4 CFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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Source: CNBC: T x8 M+ C3 b3 j @! m
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