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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 ) v8 h% R1 [! H: n2 P, n' j& F
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有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。
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% @( q Z0 ]( I$ i9 \1 EMan who called the oil crush now sees this* e0 n* p2 _; a& K+ m$ R+ N2 t
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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5 n8 h3 E9 K; _5 ]5 `Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known./ d1 V7 l2 u' g) ^! x
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.% R9 ^. |9 T! a( Q7 |
) m" ?9 i" Z8 E- t( j# P" R8 dNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.7 J1 a) }' Y1 C. U1 W! C$ f
: i1 A! h; E9 C7 g% t$ s/ z/ B0 _“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”' n1 _8 A ], \6 e w
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
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* w s" n5 f& u5 v" r' x: C3 f& ZThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel." r W: P6 D) G! J
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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: K( L+ ?& H0 D8 p2 ~& t: s M/ YWhen it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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6 N2 ?5 p0 I. G* @; I1 h“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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9 G+ {' K0 t; B& J7 }8 pLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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2 ?+ ^6 s8 [' x; v! w* a2 ?; AFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.- |! J# @- ]6 }3 G# V
7 g# N; |' O8 s6 q: \8 NSource: CNBC* {8 s+ b- ~. t d/ J+ C% h u
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